Aug 19

Here’s another one:

This one was scary! Big pushes up against me on low volume. But, thanks to the volume splitter, I knew that the large traders were at a standstill, and I waited until I could eek out a little profit. Now, I normally preach to people that they should get out for break-even plus or minus a couple ticks when the large traders do not confirm the move. In this trade I got a chance to get out +1 tick, but I decided from experience that it was likely that we’d get a low-volume fake-out push down. We did, in fact, and I covered for +1 point. Only advanced traders should try that move, though, in my opinion… I was gambling a bit there.

Anyway, I hope you are liking the live trades… I plan to do lots more of them going forward… one way or another.

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Aug 19

Ok, I’m trying once again to find video settings that work. This time, I recorded a huge video file, and then re-encoded it down to youtube size. I thought that might help things stay in sync, with more source data to work from. The result was that the audio came in ahead of the video… which is the opposite problem from before… but if I have to have a problem, then I’ll take early audio rather than late audio.

Anyway, I think this is mostly watchable, even though there are also some audio glitches that cut my voice off. Enjoy, and I’ll try to make more of these going forward.

This ES futures trade was made via my Elder-esque triple-screen approach. I modernized it with eotpro Elite Series indicators, of course! This one didn’t turn out to be too exciting, but hopefully future ones will be.

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Aug 18

Congrats to Tim Sykes, now out from under the PDT Rules! I’ve been rooting for him since he announced his goal to turn $12k into millions a second time. This time, he plans to do it in public, with all his trades out in the open. It sounded like a cool idea, and an excellent response to all trolls attacking him on elitetrader and elsewhere. Anyway, it seems like it’s going well, and I’m especially curious to see what happens next, now that he’s over the $25k SEC line in the sand for day traders.

Of course… I’d imagine when you are just past the $25k mark it is a really dangerous time… a relatively small drawdown once you become a pattern day trader could freeze your account, right? Maybe he should wait until he’s built up more of a buffer before trading at full speed…

Aug 17

Why do I love books by Alexander Elder? Here’s the second sentence in Sell and Sell Short (Wiley Trading):

“That cute puppy bouncing up and down in your living room will some day become an old, decrepit dog whom you will have to drive to the vet’s office to put it out of its misery.”

True enough, I guess! So, as Elder goes on to say: “Take off those rose-colored glasses and learn to sell.”

Not Just a Selling Book, After All

The book doesn’t just talk about selling, though. I was pleased to see that the whole first section of the book goes over trading in general. In fact, it makes for a concise guide to much of Elder’s earlier work (in Trading for a Living, Come Into My Trading Room, and Entries & Exits). Though I’ve read his earlier books, it was nice for me to see as a refresher on his methodology.

Elder always comes across as a trader, first and foremost. He knows that you can’t always get in at the bottom and get out at the top, so he’s pragmatic about choosing between “fast dimes and slow dollars.” He’s also strongly in favor of monitoring your performance, and the book has a pretty neat way to grade trades based on the quality of the entry and the exit in terms of their position in the trading channel.

The cool thing about reading books from experienced traders (or experienced people in any profession, really), is the way they manage to cut issues down to their essential qualities. For instance: At the level above specific approaches that fall in and out of favor, Elder frames the trading problem simply in terms of exploiting the gap between price and value. After that, all you need to figure out is how to define value, how to track its changes, and how to measure the gap. It’s good every now and again to step back and view an issue from a higher perspective like that. Psychology and risk management are given similar treatment.

Of course Elder touches on his triple-screen method, which you’ve seen me use many times in the course of this blog. I’ve always kept reference charts up, ever since I read Elder’s earlier work. Reading this book has inspired me to put up a strict three-chart method for a while, and as you’ve seen, it’s gone pretty well!

Selling, and Selling Short

After that wonderful overview section, we get to the meat of this book, which is all about selling. Again, Elder cuts through the complexity and says you will either sell at a target, or sell with a stop, or sell because of a change in conditions. Of course there is infinite variation possible in each category, and Elder devotes chapters of his book to each one.

In each chapter, you get a breakdown of the approach, and it’s pros and cons. You’ll also get several illustrated trades that Elder has made, with commentary. I was particularly pleased that several of the profiled trades did not go as planned, or suffered from poor exits and the like. On the other hand, I don’t remember any trading losses covered, so there couldn’t have been many in that category. That’s too bad, but I do understand… The book isn’t about how to take a loss. It’s about when to take profits.

Then we get to selling short. There’s some obligatory text about what on earth short selling is, which any serious trader probably already knows. But I can forgive that, and it makes the book accessible to beginners. Again, in the short-selling section, Elder does not disappoint. He covers topics like the fact that declines in price are often much faster than rises. He goes on to explain how bottoms in price tend to look different than tops in price… which makes you wonder why almost every strategy you see published says “…and do the opposite for shorts of course.” It seems to me like perhaps strategies shouldn’t be so symmetric, if price patterns aren’t. Food for thought…

The emphasis throughout the book is stocks, but Elder does touch on differences in futures, options, and forex worlds. And, I find much of what he says to be applicable in all three arenas.

Summary

Being familiar with Alexander Elder’s earlier work, I expected Sell and Sell Short to be a treat. I wasn’t disappointed. Thanks to the nice and concise introductory chapter on finding entries, keeping records, and psychology, I can now suggest that new traders pick up this book as an introduction to all of Elder’s work. The material on when and why to sell has the ring of experience and pragmatism to it, and the provided example trades are delightfully imperfect. The charts and approach outlined are easy to grasp, and I appreciated the way the issues under discussion were distilled to their essence.

Aug 16

I go over some frequently asked questions. I get a lot of emails and youtube messages about these topics.

Slowly but surely, I will re-establish my video presence.

Questions covered include:

  • how to get into trading without having any money?
  • what charts to look at?
  • will I advertise your product(s)?
  • will I trade links with you?
  • and many more

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Aug 16

Here’s our latest EOTPro Indicator Lesson School recording:

http://eotpro.acrobat.com/p41183923/

It’s pretty great, because Bill goes briefly through a large swath of the indicators, and what they look like, and what they are for. Check it out!

Aug 15

I was doing some other things, but did keep my trading platform open for the majority of the trading day. Here’s my context chart (about 28k share bars) on ES:

As you can see… pretty choppy, lame day. I did make three trades for three wins, but it took a ton of patience. But, what’s cool about having a context chart (you can also use point-and-figure charts or even something like a 10-minute chart for this purpose), is that you know that you are going to need patience. Even from early on, it was clearly looking to be a kind of painful day… the moving averages were all right in the middle of the price action. To me, this means that it’s time to break out the counter-trend plays and fade the moves. At least until you see a high-volume breakout.

Anyway, I hope you had a good trading week, and have a good weekend!

Aug 15

Last night, I put together the eotpro PattyB signal on the ninjatrader platform. Finally, we have a trading screen that looks pretty much like a modern eotpro setup:

And even on clunky 1-minute data, they are performing well. In the middle of this chart, you can see price break through Alla’s Avg, then come back up and test it. Then, on the way down you get Bonnie’s bars turning red, and a patty B short signal. You pick an exit when EOT-id hooks down after meeting EOT-TA. If you notice, that’s a pretty perfect exit, too!

Aug 14

I wish I could make a screen capture video to show you the whole day… it was pretty cool. But, here’s another nice clean entry.

You can see that the upper left chart puts us in a clear uptrend context. So, we’re only looking long for non-scalp trades. Then, you can see in the large right-hand chart that we are pushing out of consolidation with pressure from the large traders. The eotpro GCycle Stochastics are hooking up. Also, the moving averages start lining up in the correct order. So, you check the fine-tuning chart (lower left), and see that the bars are already green… so you jump in.

It takes some real patience to wait for the three screens to line up. But when they do, it’s often very nice. Note on the overview chart that, for the rest of the day, the uptrend turned weak and sideways. The moving averages never really crossed to allow for true short signals, though. Only scalping and short aggressive trades are allowed from then on out.

Aug 14

I started watching the markets around 9:30 central time. Can’t quite seem to get home and to my trading desk by 8:30… gotta work on that!

Anyway, here’s the first trade I saw set up. Pretty!

Note that there was another good setup around 10:00ish, on the stochastic hook up. But I must have been looking at another screen at the time, because I completely missed it. I need to set up an alert or something.

Anyway, one thing about this approach, is that it really makes you sit on your hands until a trend gets established. Look at the upper left chart (the high-level context chart) at how big an up move starts around that 9:08 time frame. But, the moving averages have not yet crossed, so if I were at my desk I would have to sat it out. At least, from a triple-screen perspective, I would. In reality, I’d take stabs at the upswings, and try to scalp out maybe 1 point at a time.

If you have a nice scalping method, that can really help you stay sane while you wait for your bigger trades to finally set up.

Aug 13

Here are some example trades on ES using my recent triple-screen setup. They take you all the way up a large uptrend, in 6 runs. Pretty cool. Now, some of them

Sadly, I am in a huge hurry right now, and so I can’t write much commentary. I will just say, if you look at the third and fifth one closely, you will see that all of the elements are not lined up perfectly. Can you see what I mean? So, these I would just try to grab a quick point on, or something, rather than try to ride them all the way up. At least, that’d be my initial thought when getting in. There are plenty of opportunities to trade… no need to try to swing for the fences on each entry. At least, that’s my take on things…

Aug 13

Here we see the eotpro Vram bars and Jazz bars, converted to the NinjaTrader trading platform.

Just like my Bonnie’s Bars conversion, Jazz Bars give you the option of being an actual paintbar, or plot a row of dots, or both! VRam bars are only available in dot form, because they aren’t actually paintbars. They are virtual bars, and NinjaTrader doesn’t seem to easily support drawing virtual bars. However, the indicator still publishes the vram highs and lows, so that you can write code that makes use of them in custom indicators and strategies.

With these two indicators, and the ones I’ve converted before, I now have all of the building blocks of the Patty B entry signal! We will have the Patty B on ninja by Friday, I bet!

Get ready, Ninja users… we’re getting close!

Aug 12

Here’s a couple examples of the triple-screen in action. Check this out:

Here are the screenshots I’m talking over in the video, if you want a higher-res look. Just click on the thumbnail to get the full size:

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Aug 11

As I mentioned this weekend, I paper-traded my prototype triple-screen today. It’s not the first triple-screen I’ve used… but it has potential to be the best. With the volume splitter involved, how could it be stopped? :-)

Anyway, here’s an example from today. It’s pretty clear what to do, no?

I went ahead and left the ad text I had written on there for the elite series, since this screenshot shows off my EOTPro elite series of indicators. Check it out if you haven’t!

So, today’s trades went well… it was clear when to trade, and when to scalp against the trend. I rather liked it.

I am crazy, in that I am most comfortable if I change my style up a bit from time to time. I don’t recommend most traders do that… find a style and stick to it, at least until you are able to make consistent money. There’s plenty of time to pick up additional trading styles once your bills are paid!

If you are losing money, read that last sentence over and over, until you understand it!

By the way, I am much closer to having a sellable ninja package now! I got more work done this weekend. Here you can see the Shelly’s Volume and GCycle Stochastics, and the powerful Madder indicator:

Aug 8

I’ve been playing around with ideas tonight, some. Not new ideas, really… but old ideas re-built with new code.

I’m sure many of you are familiar with scalping techniques built around rainbow ribbons of weighted averages. Tonight I made a new custom moving average to try out… and whenever I make a moving average, I make a rainbow out of it, for laughs. Here’s an example entry, when the lines sort themselves out, and continue to expand through a pullback:

It’s an easy technique to understand… in my experience, hard to use in real-life trading, though. Your mileage may vary.

Also, I’m reviewing a new-ish book by Alexander Elder. I can’t read an Elder book without thinking back to the legendary Triple-Screen approach. So, I tweaked some old paintbar code, and added in things like my volume-splitter and rolling VWAPs, and the trusty GCycle_Stochastic_Smooth… and came up with this triple-screen incarnation:

I will probably sim-trade it Monday, and see if it’s usable. In theory, it works well. And of course, if it works well, I will make sure my eotpro Elite Series subscribers have access to all the parts.

I’m running out of energy tonight, but maybe tomorrow I will be able to post my review of that Elder book.

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