None of my stocks did greater than 2x their normal volume today, though Caremark RX Inc (NYSE: CMX) looked like it would, early on. This made for a pretty uneventful day here at stately Todd Manor. Other than my tiny CMX trade, which I already discussed, I made no trades today. I was hoping the Fed Beige Book event at 2PM would liven things up, but as far as I could see they just made my stocks jiggle more without going anywhere.
When Boredom Strikes
When you’re bored while watching the markets, most of you know by now I suggest you look at it as a gift. People with normal jobs can’t just goof off whenever they want. You can (if you are a full time trader… if not, that’s just one more reason to envy full time traders)! But, sometimes, I want to watch things close enough that I can’t go do anything significant. That’s when it can be fun to take a few minutes and take a personality test. Or, as I did today… do a google search for the phrase “Richard looked like“, and see what comes up. Here were some of my results:
Richard looked like an old gay pirate
Richard looked like–well–Richard.
I still remember what Richard looked like, what he sounded like, and, most unfortunately, the feeling of abject terror when I realized he was having a…
Richard looked like he was going to start crying again.
:-) Good times, good times. If you try this on yourself, make sure you put quotes around the phrase when you do the search.
Stocks that Hit their Trigger Points
As before, I’m going to review any stocks that did moderately more that 1x normal volume and hit their triggers. There were 6 today. First, the DIA and QQQQ charts for reference (both the daily from last night, and the intraday from today):
| DIA Charts |   |
|---|---|
| QQQQ Charts |   |
Today, I spent most of my time focused on CMX… in the end, it only did 1.86x normal volume. Early on it looked like it was on track to do at least 2.3x. It eventually broke out of its range, but too late in the day to really run.
| Symbol | Avg Vol | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CMX | 7,357,000 | 13,691,100 | |
| P/L | about 1R with 0.5% Stop (EOD) about 0.5R at most with 1% Stop (EOD) 0.25 R or so with 2% Stop (hold to EOD) |
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| Charts |   |
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The short play on Trump Entertainment Resorts Inc (Nasdaq: TRMP) doesn’t trigger because it gapped below the 17.50 number. It did 1.9x normal volume, though, as it clawed its way back to 17.50 over the course of the day. If this one turns again tomorrow, it might make a good short play.
Next we have the break of 44.68 on McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD). This stack did 1.7x normal volume, and after a bit of a bumpy start, ran up. However, it only ran up about 35 cents, making this a pretty flat trade…
| Symbol | Avg Vol | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 648,000 | 1,238,842 | |
| P/L | b/e with 0.5% Stop, if you bought the opening run ~0.47R with 1% Stop (EOD) 0.24 R or so with 2% Stop (hold to EOD) |
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| Charts |   |
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Next up is Flamel Technologies S.A. (Nasdaq: FLML). It only did 1.6x normal volume, and it shows. It just peeked above its number for one long upper wick, and never tried again. I personally would have bailed on a vertical move that then fell all the way back down in two minutes, but had you bought and held, you’d have taken a loss somewhere between 0 and -1 R. There were plenty of signs to get out, like lower highs, etc.
| Symbol | Avg Vol | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLML | 335,000 | 534,633 | |
| P/L | b/e with 0.5% Stop, if you were quick b/e to -1R with 1% Stop, depending on your temperment b/e to -1R with 2% Stop |
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| Charts |   |
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And 3 more…
I’m not going to bother with charts for the remaining three: SEPR, EWH, BAX. All three did 1.3 to 1.5x normal volume, and all three acted just like FLML above. They tapped their number (in some cases going only 1 cent above it!), and fell back down. Moral of the story: In a sideways cranky market, it’s even more important to have high volume if you want a new high to stick. None of the stocks I watched today had truly confidence-inspiring volume (5x or better).
Well, you did fare better in this Google fight…
What’s your average volume based on? 30 days?
I’m using whatever google spreadsheets returns as volumeavg. I believe it’s the 3 Month average.
How does WSTL look?
WSTL’s doing better than average volume, but the real breakout was on the 11th, with a minor second break of consolidation yesterday. I’d be careful daytrading it today, since it may need to digest all the recent new highs. Sub $10 stocks are not really my specialty, though…