It’s Deja-Vu All Over Again


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Look at these charts of the ETF’s for the major indicies going back one year:

DIA, aka Dow Jones Industrial Average:
Chart as of 3-09-2007 vs. Chart Today (3-21-2007)

chart-of-dia-3092007.gifchart-of-dia-3-21-2007.gif

QQQQ, aka Nasdaq-100:
Chart as of 3-09-2007 vs. Chart Today (3-21-2007)

chart-of-qqqq-3092007.gifchart-of-qqqq-3-21-2007.gif

SPY, aka S&P 500:
Chart as of 3-09-2007 vs. Chart Today (3-21-2007)

chart-of-spy-3092007.gifchart-of-spy-3-21-2007.gif

Do those Fibonacci retracements catch your eye? All the cheerleaders saying “the correction’s over!” might want to curb their enthusiasm a bit. The volume on our “rebound” this last week has not been impressive to me at all. I think that there’s more excitement to come in the near future…

EDIT 3-21-2007: Looks like the excitement was to the upside. I guess you can’t predict ‘em all!


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


4 Responses

  1. Richard Says:

    Should we expect them to hit the 62% level twice? They’ve already all retraced there once, right? I’m definitely feeling the effects of low volume…

  2. Prospectus Says:

    I think so. If you look at the old DIA, it hit that level twice back in May/June. The others had differing degrees of retrac-itude. An important clue is that they have all retraced up to the 62% level on decreasing volume.

    The key to me is the 62%-38% zone. I think they’ll rattle around inside there until we get a high volume breakout one way or the other. My guess is a down move (at least until we hit the 0% mark on my charts from today).

  3. Prospectus Says:

    EDIT: 3-20-2007

    This rally is coming on decreasing volume. The charts are nearing the 62% fib level. Watch out later this week! Tomorrow should be interesting…

  4. Prospectus Says:

    Edited 3-21-2007: I’m stunned at the response to the Fed announcement today. New bull buying or bear short squeeze? I guess we’ll see what happens going forward…

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