This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
Check out this weekly view of crude oil. Not only did it drop five points last week, but it appears to have broken down from a bear flag. The chart speaks for itself. I would expect at least a test of the recent swing lows just under $53.
This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
May 5th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
I don’t know, last time I prognosticated I was wrong. And how!
http://www.movethemarkets.com/blog/2007/03/09/its-deja-vu-all-over-again/
May 6th, 2007 at 4:48 am
true, but if u make enough predictions u are bound to be right…then the trick is to remind readers of those occasions :-)
May 6th, 2007 at 7:07 am
Oil is difficult to trade using TA…in my opinion. Seems easier using geopolitical fundamentals. Generally, I’ve been buying most dips of significance and then simply await the next panic spike when a skirmish breaks out in the mideast, Russia, Nigeria, etc. to sell. Most oil is produced in very politically unstable areas. This results in opportunities to exploit the instability…real Daddy Warbucks kind of thing. I also commit the cardinal sin of averaging down…buying more on heavier dips rather than being stopped out. I don’t see the risk. Oil is the primary driver of all economic activity and with patience, one simply cannot lose. Production of “cheap” oil has either ended, or is fast coming to an end depending on who you talk to. There will be lots of oil…but it is getting more and more difficult to extract. Long term prospects of price increases seem inevitable. Oil, simply put, has far more intrinsic value than other commodities. The world needs and will pay dearly for oil. The demand/supply curve is inelastic, and the supply will only increase (again, depending on who you believe) with vastly more complex and costly extraction methods, which results in higher prices on world markets. Seems a no brainer to me. Buy the dips and prosper.
Mike
May 6th, 2007 at 7:53 am
mike: you obviously have more capital and bigger balls than me…gl