This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
I traded my first swing trade today after the daytrade moratorium, in UltraShort QQQ ProShares (ETF) (AMEX: QID). I entered based on the 6% drop in the Chinese stock markets last night. I entered in the first 15 minutes, and the markets reversed and marched on upward. I finally got stopped out today after the FOMC minutes were released, so I ended up daytrading after all. Another -1R down the hole. End of “swing” trade.
Worse than yet another loss is the psychological capital I keep losing. I have no confidence in my trading abilities anymore. Even my long term 401k holdings are suffering. I’ve got them all in bonds since February this year, and I’m flat for the year instead of up 9% like the rest of my market-ignorant coworkers. Four years studying markets and two years trading, and I can’t even outperform them. Pretty pathetic. I’m really struggling with whether I should keep trying or just admit my failure and save the rest of my money. I’ve always had confidence in myself that I could accomplish the goals I set for myself, but I’m not so sure about this one. I’m so far out of touch with the markets it seems. I “know” so much, but maybe I’m one of those people that knows a lot but can’t trade.
Anyway, hope everybody caught some of the upswing today.
This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
May 30th, 2007 at 1:21 pm
a break away from everything to do with trading (including blogs, wallstreak, etc.) may be in order…a few days (or weeks) away from everything market related may be in order
its in your blood, so u couldn’t quit even if u tried…here’s a site that talks a lot about breaking bad habits, and he says it much better than me…i’m in the process of trying to apply some of these techniques in my own situation…good luck
http://traderpsychology.blogspot.com/2007/05/so-how-do-traders-break-their-bad_27.html
May 30th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
i should proof read my comments before i submit them…i repeat myself…i repeat myself…i repeat myself
May 30th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
This is the reason I stopped reading market forecasters. It sounds convincing enough when someone like Bill Cara describes in detail why the markets will plunge any day now. But, even if they’re right, they aren’t trying to pinpoint exactly when the tide will turn, and that pretty much makes their information useless to me. Worse than useless, actually, because I’m pretty sure every time I’ve started trading with some kind of directional bias, I’ve been wrong. Every time.
The rule I live by lately is: if it seems obvious and logical, then it can’t make you money. The one exception would be if you thought of it yourself, and no one else agrees with you. Take this China thing.
I think after that single obvious wave of selling that started in Asia a couple months back, everyone expects the US market to trade just like the Asian markets. CNBC talking heads kept yapping about the “global economy” and how much we are depending on chinese investments, and the unravelling yen carry trade, and on and on. It sounds straightforward enough. To me, that means: pretend you’ve never heard any of it. It won’t make you any money!
If there is an actual Chinese bubble, and it bursts, and it does impact the US markets, I bet it happens the day after most poeple have changed their minds and have given up on playing it. That’s just the way it is.