Hi all. I got bored mid-day, and decided to go ahead and blog my four morning trades. Will there be any afternoon trades? I don’t know. We’ll see how the markets act after the fed announcement. I had same nice gains today, and will need a pretty convincing setup before I put that at risk.
The trades were on FMCN (1 win 1 loss that cancelled out), URBN (nice sized win), and FNM (nice sized win).
[Edit: I made one more trade after the FED announcement. I (along with most others I know) was looking for stocks to pop up, so of course they fell down. Eventually there was a reversal back to the upside, but by then I was non-plussed. I don't have the temperament to play in a wild news environment. I took JNPR for 9 cents on a nice safe-looking ascending triangle, and called it a day. So, 5 trades today; 4 wins and 1 loss; very profitable day due to large position sizes on my winners.]
Johnson on wallstreak pointed out JNPR. Thanks, man! Here’s the PnF chart covering the last two days. See how there’s a wall at 33.00 practically all day, and that if you squint enough you can imagine a triangle covering most of the day?
Now, here’s a 3-minute chart of the last 2 hours before the breakout. See how there’s another ascending triangle inside the bigger triangle from the PnF chart? There’s that fractal price action again!
Anyway, based on the small triangle a conservative price target would be about 20 cents. I just went for 10, because I really don’t trust the post-fed environment. I still made twice my risk, since I was using a 5-cent stop. I note that others that caught most of the 70 cent move also made about twice their risk… so you see, while my style is not as sexy, I often make similar $$$ in less time. Lots of ways to skin the market… do what makes you comfortable!
I adjusted my “mean reversal” paintbars again this morning, and they are looking better than ever. The code for these painbars is a mile long! I added two criteria that eliminate the two biggest causes for false positives I’ve noted so far. Actually, it’s the same number of paintbars, but I’m slowly trying to turn all the questionable cases grey. I want there to be high confidence in the blue and red/green varieties, and only passing interest in the grey ones.
August 7th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
so what is the time frame you expect on releasing your new paintbars?
August 7th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
oh, I don’t know. i need to make a video about how to use them, and what they mean. Maybe this weekend.