Aug 29

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I think the VO was afraid of the competition. I’m sure many people get bored seeing Misstrade bang out a couple grand per day. Although DT’s $26,000 was quite interesting, most days are uneventful. Its just a collection of pro traders with consistent profits.

However, for those who wanted to see a part-time, underfunded trader go up in flames, they turned to the Virtual Cubicle (hat tip to Richard for the name).

Its a sad day, but the VC was swallowed up by the menacing VO today. Damn takeovers!

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It would have been a nice day if I would have stayed away from the oil pits. I can’t remember the last time I turned a profit when the oil inventory report came out. The NQ provided plenty of opportunity, and I was able to catch part of it.


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Aug 29
Aug 28

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I only took one trade today, since I had a full schedule of other garbage (aka work) to do, and didn’t have time to watch the markets past about 11 ET. My trade was in LEH, which was poised to gap down at the open. I entered in premarket trading, anticipating a larger selloff on the open. I’ve noticed this phenomenon by watching gappers move further in the direction of the gap in the first bar. My play was always to enter on a reversal after a retrace, as a Trader-X or Jamie style setup. This time I decided to play the first move. My entry is the orange line, and my stop was 2 cents above the premarket high. I covered half at the light blue line, and moved the stop on the rest to breakeven. I hoped to get the 138% fib extension, but LEH quickly retraced back to the open and stopped me out on the other half.

leh-candle-4h_5m-2007-08-28-164817.GIF

LEH made it to the 119% fib at the close, but I was long gone by then. In the end I made +1R on the trade, and fairly comfortably as my trade was in the black from the open onward. Since I discovered that I can trade outside of market hours with my prop firm, I’ve been looking for more trades like this. Nice to start out with a win first thing in the morning. :)


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Aug 28

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


The “Sky is Falling Trade,” (SIFT), is when you identify a trend down day in the indices, and load up short on a few mediocre to good setups. The mediocre setups are the ones that you get stopped out quickly on. Very tight stops are the modus operandi, as the market could decide that the sky is not falling. From now on, I may just trade the indices when I identify a trend down day. The first trade is an attempted gap fill, the rest are SIFT. I made R 2 today. It always feels like you should have made more on SIFT days.

FXI:
28-aug-fxi.PNG

ONXX:

28-aug-onxx.PNG

ACH:

28-aug-ach.PNG

WINN:

28-aug-winn.PNG

SAFM:

28-aug-safm.PNG


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Aug 28

Yawn… wake me up after Labor Day! This morning scalp on KBH could have paid off well with a 17 cent gain.. only problem was the 11 cents of slippage on my entry! So, I made 6 cents instead. Not a bad start, but I would have preferred to make at least one more trade to increase my gains.

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Aug 28
PnL

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Aug 28
Aug 27

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


In this week’s installment of “it could be worse,” we focus on a Church Deacon that you don’t want to mess with. In a bar fight between a few college football fans, the Fighting Deacon (Sooners fan) grabbed a Texas Longhorn fan between the legs. He didn’t let go until he tore the scrotal sack leaving the testicles exposed.

My worst day in the market is 10 times better than the day this Texan is having. Who am I kidding? Its 1000 times better!


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Aug 27

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Richard and I traded the same stock today, ONXX. Two ways to make moola on the same stock using different methodologies. I also traded CAL but went in Willy Nilly, as ill-advised by Maoxian for a R 0.4 loss on 1/2 of a position. I won’t post a chart, cause it is hard to chart Willy Nilly.

ONXX:27-aug-onxx.PNG


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Aug 27

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I spent a lot of the morning throwing money away. I got no love from CAL as I tried to short it 7 times from around 31 and it never moved. We had a big expanse to cross, and on a day with normal volatility in CAL we should have hit 30 easy, as Jamie said today.

I was down about -2% on my equity when Wallstreak user dinsf called out RIO as a potential short candidate. I looked at the daily and the 15 minute to get an idea of potential resistance zones that might stop RIO’s advance:

Daily:

rio-candle-six-months_1d-2007-08-27-153645.GIF

15 min:

rio-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-08-27-153906.GIF

With these resistances and targets in mind, I turned to the 1 minute chart to look for momentum divergence.

1 min:

rio-candle-2h_1m-2007-08-27-155019.GIF

I saw one (though it was very small) and decided to scale in 1/5 of my overall position size at 49.19 after a relatively high volume candle with an upper tail fairly near the overhead resistance. I would keep an eye on the resistance levels to make sure I got out if those were breached. RIO started to slide, caught a bounce or two, and then threatened to make a lower low. That’s when I piled in the other 4/5 of my position at 48.90. (In retrospect, I was too conservative and should have scaled in sooner–I sat out of half of the move!) I covered half when we had a lot of chop at 48.75, fearing a move back above my pile in point of 48.90. I held the rest until we hit the target area of 48.40, and covered at 48.36 for the rest.

I don’t know how to characterize the risk / reward on this play. My initial risk was from my entry at 49.19 to 49.50 (the highest resistance and also my failsafe point) on 20% of the position size, I suppose, but when I piled on short I could have easily lost more than that if we had a quick reversal. According to this measure, I returned +6.3R on this trade, but I don’t know that this is a fair number. Any ideas on how to track the risk on these plays?

Sadly, this win was only able to bring me to within $5 of being green for the day. I ended barely down, but I got practice in a StreetSmack scalp, so that was awesome. I should have pressed more on my pile-in timing and also on my ultimate position size (I could have traded more shares), but that will come in time.


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Aug 27

3 Wins today, all on the same stock. Crazy! Believe it or not, I only had two stocks make it through my main trade-ideas filter today. They were Aluminum Corp. of China Limited (NYSE: ACH) and Onyx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: ONXX). My data feed for ACH was full of bad ticks in the morning, so I crossed it off the list. That left me pretty much looking at ONXX and a handful of other stocks which weren’t impressing me much. But, I managed to make 3 scalps on ONXX for 3 wins, at 36.00, 37.00, and 38.00 as it chopped its way northward.

Some other odds and ends:

  • Over the weekend, I opened up the full RSS feed for the site, and I think I adapted my anti-hotlinking measures to let the images through. If you are seeing spam warnings instead of the real images, then let me know. This was the #1 request I get from people, so I think I just made several folks happy. I’m going to locate a plugin for wordpress as soon as I get over my laziness that will put an anti-splog warning in the RSS. I suppose that’s good enough. They steal my content whether I protect it or not, so…
  • I tried to pull the data for my weekly scan yesterday, but eoddata.com was giving me download errors. I’ll try again tonight, but in the worst case the 1-week old list should still be more than adequate.
  • Be careful out there, as we head into Labor Day weekend…
Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
ACH | |
ONXX | |

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Aug 27
P/L

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Level 1.65 Trader

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Aug 26

A lot of you know that, before my current job as a daytrader, I was climbing up the corporate ladder at an engineering firm. Like most big companies, we had plaques and cards with grandiose mission statements on them. Something like: “We will provide exceptional value to our customers via superior technical solutions created with a sense of ethics and integrity.” Even just typing it makes my eyes roll. The associated list of “corporate values” were just as sad (and they only ever talked about them just before ISO:9001 audits so we’d know what to say…. but that’s another story).

Only a room full of high-salary business people could produce a mission statement so worthless. Of course they meant well, but in the end they just didn’t know what they were doing. Unfortunately, when I talk to traders about what they want to achieve, I hear equally well-intentioned yet equally useless statements. My background in business helps me keep a straight face (figuratively, since the exchange is always over e-mail or instant messaging), but I’ve been meaning to write an article about this topic for quite a while.

Your trading business is just that: a business. Let’s think a little about how we can treat it like one.

Defining the Concepts of Mission and Values

What exactly is a mission and a value, in terms of a business endeavor? Let’s ask Jack Welch, former CEO of General Electric:

… a good mission statement and a good set of values are so real they smack you in the face with their concreteness. The mission announces exactly where you are going, and the values describe behaviors that will get you there.

That quote is from his 2005 book, Winning. I thought it was one of the better non-technical books on management that I’ve read.

Good mission statements are so difficult to write because they are both high-level and specific. Ok, so no more lip-service to a laundry list of virtues. Of course, instead of “ethics” and “integrity,” traders usually cite “consistently profitable” and “only taking the best setups.” Yawn. Wake me up when they get past the part about not pulling stops… Obviously you need those, but what are you really going to do to succeed in your trading business? As Jack says (ibid.):

In my experience, an effective mission statement basically answers one question: How do we intend to win in this business?

From 1981 to 1995, GE’s mission was to be the most competitive enterprise in the world by fixing, selling, or closing every business unit that could not achieve No. 1 or No. 2 status in its market. For another example, here’s Google’s mission statement: Google’s mission is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful.

The “values” are just behaviors that flesh out the mission statement, and I’ll give some examples below.

My Trading Mission Statement

A few months into my trading career, I gave some thought to what I really wanted to achieve, and came up with a mission statement. I’m not saying this is the best mission statement, or the most original, but it’s what I came up with:

I will generate the smoothest equity curve possible, using the smallest bets that still cover my living expenses.

When I say “smooth,” I mean no big losses and no big wins either. Having recently read Fooled by Randomness, and experiencing the ups and downs of novice trading, I had a few specific ideas floating in my head:

  • You can’t tell the difference between luck and skill in the short run, and I am still in the learning stage of the game.
  • People like the concept of expectancy, because it tells them it’s ok to only win 40% of the time… but I’d rather minimize my risk of ruin as long as I’m making enough to get by
  • Living month-to-month, I don’t want to wait an unspecified time for a windfall gain… I want a stream of steady small wins
  • Given a liquid enough instrument, leverage is a knob you can turn any time you want to “magnify” your wins and your losses.
  • Returns with shallow drawdowns can be safely magnified the most. So, once I have some mastery of trading, I should be able to easily shift my focus towards becoming a seriously wealthly mofo

You can see my thinking in-progress in my posts from that era, which focused on pitfalls of focusing on expectancy and relative danger of trading different account sizes, and the like.

The secret to success seemed to boil down to generating the smoothest equity curve possible. I think, as a mission statement, it does at least answer the basic question how do I intend to win this daytrading game? The vague long-term goal was to enjoy steady small returns (not depending on big wins and not suffering big losses), and then start increasing leverage after a sufficent track record had been established. I’m still using that plan, today.

The associated values that flesh out this mission statement include things like:

  • Increase profits by making more trades rather than bigger trades (this also improves consistency, see my article on the topic)
  • Do not specialize in any one trading system (see articles about the ideal discretionary “Type 3″ trader, and numerous others about various approaches I’ve incorporated into my trading)
  • Focus on win rate, then profit factor, then expectancy, in that order
  • Minimize per-trade risk (every time my trading reaches a new level of profitability, I decrease my normal position size. I used to be able to live on 5R of profits a month… now I need more like 20R per month to live). This usually implies ‘minimize leverage’ as well

Hopefully it’s obvious how these values are in alignment with my overall mission. They are the “hows” that compliment the mission’s “what.” Once again, you can probably figure out other values by reading through the articles I wrote last year.

Use Your Mission Statement

The great thing about an effective mission statement and associated values, is that you can actually use them. Every time I make a decision, I can think back to my mission, and make sure I am in alignment with it. Here are just a few examples:

  • At least once a month someone asks me if I daytrade futures or currencies. It certainly sounds exciting, but it doesn’t fit with my current mission at all.
  • Every so often people leave a comment on the blog saying I’m making a mistake by not “swinging for the fences” with my profit targets. It can get frustrating, but I try to explain that I have different goals than they do. Plus, they rarely seem to grasp how you make the same money winning $.10 on 2000 shares as you do winning $1.00 on 200 shares.
  • It’s taking me a long time to get into the options game for longer-term trades (which I had planned to do by now), because the increased leverage and wide spreads are at odds with my current mission. I am still investigating strategies, and hoping that penny option pricing helps me out to some degree.
  • I have some interest right now in doing a better job of choosing profit targets for my scalps, so I don’t leave so much money on the table. But, that is taking a back-seat to things like learning how the fibonacci traders trade, since adding more trading styles is in-line with one of my core values.

The list goes on and on..

Having an overall idea of where you are going as a trader clarifies and shapes your goals for each month. It keeps you focused on what’s really important. If you are mired in a bunch of vague near-term goals like “make $x by y” or “obey my own rules,” then you might benefit from creating a framework for all those tasks in the form of a mission statement for your trading business. It need not be anything like mine, especially if you have different goals for your trading career, or a different personality, or whatever. Hopefully, I’ve made the concept seem less hokey than most businesses make it.

Aug 26
Aug 25

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