Oct 24

yeah… I think I will try annotating 28657 share bars…. that’s about 5 to 10 minutes per bar most days… MUCH easier, and it looks more like the annotations I see people do on 5-min charts…

easier

I was spending an awful lot of time updating those lines at 4181 share bar speeds. They were printing fast today! Plus, did you know I’m annotating YM, EMD, and ZG as well? It took a lot out of me…. I’m still tired! So, maybe the slower pace will do me good all around. Or, maybe it’s like a marathon, and I have to kind-of build up my endurance over time! Don’t know.

The idea behind drawing these, (for me, anyway) is to understand which locations I should be most confident opening a position. I would look for short signals near the tops of channels, and long signals near the bottoms of channels…. (duh!). Or, for example, if the 1597 chart is giving me long signals near the top of a channel, I’ll be looking for it to break out… that kind of thing.

Then again, maybe I don’t need to do this at all… I went through ES and ZG charts this evening, freshly annotated of course. It turns out, all the good signals coincide with the first eotpro signals after a bias line change… hrm… I already knew those were the best ones to take, damnit! So, all that drawing didn’t tell me anything I didn’t know already. Something to think about…. I’ll be keeping my eye on that… If I don’t see the trendlines either (1) finding trades I wouldn’t have taken or (2) helping me avoid bad trades that I would have taken, then I will stop. It will take a few weeks to be sure, regardless.

(you can tell I’m exhausted by how I kept using ellipses instead of making “sophisticated” sentences)

(you can tell I’ll be okay if I just get some sleep by the way I still know words like “ellipses”)

(oh, and if you are curious… the trend-channel “beginner” approach, as I understand it, is to just hop on those trends at the start of the second push, and hold on until the trendline is violated… so with the chart above, I would have gotten short around 1515ish, and covered at 1507ish… then that green channel has no second push… then gotten short around maybe 1502 and covered for a 1 to 2 pt loss…. then got long at 1507ish and held til 1517ish… then on purple channel get long again around 1517ish and hold to the close… WOW. so you can see how their method caught my eye…)

Oct 24

Not the best day for me… I should just stick to the box play. Instead, I didn’t play any of the box plays, and stuck to this Hershey-ish (Hershian?) trend-channel methodology I’m trying to learn. I had mixed success, as you’ll see. I’m out of energy at the moment, but maybe I’ll post a big play-by-play review of what could have been, trend-channel-wise, later. It’ll be in jpegs, rather than video form. I really do think the method has promise… but it seems hard to apply in real time. I was afraid of that!

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Oct 24

I promised loyal reader Alex that I would post something about my stock setup … so…. here are some screenshots.

Watchlist

So, before the open, I go through my top stocks list on this screen:
EOD Scan

The radar screen shows signal2noise, the GVol_Osc, and a cycle-adaptive bollinger bandwidth/%b reading. This helps me filter out stocks that probably won’t be interesting to me. I don’t have to review the whole list every night, which is good because I honestly don’t enjoy doing this part too terribly much. When the little squiggly lines don’t squiggle, it’s kinda boring to me. Gotta have some action! (GVol_Osc is an eotpro creation; I coded the other two).

By clicking on one of the stocks, the two charts shown get populated with the price data (that’s the green ‘S’ on the windows, linking them together). The chart on the left is a daily chart with the Madder bias line superimposed in the middle, and the cycle moving average (both eotpro). The chart on the right is a 60-minute chart with pretty much all the ‘main’ eotpro indicators on it, though I prefer GVol_Osc to Shelly’s Volume for use on stocks.

I have been known to also pull up a longer-term PnF chart (with no indicators on it) to see a bigger picture, but aside from that, what you see pictured is how I make my watchlist for the following morning. I whine about it, but it usually only takes about 15 minutes.

Watching

So, just before “showtime”, I put my watchlist stocks (and only my watchlist stocks) on this screen:

StScreen

For me, the key here is to be very light on indicators of any kind. Now that I’m only playing the open, it’s not so important to me… but when I scan through stocks all day, I want to plays to jump out at me in a pure form… then I will go looking at indicators. If I am hungry to trade and I look at a bunch of indicators, I can construct a story in my head about why they say I should trade. That’s no good for me.

So, on the radar screen, I have signal2noise. This is great for when you have a long list… you can just look at the green ones. Cuts out a lot of wasted effort. I’ve got the GVol_Osc reading. I’ve got the Box Play there, to alert me if a box play sets up anywhere on my watchlist. I have the cycle-adaptive bollinger stats. And, I have the current bid-ask spread. So, I can tell a great deal about what the stock’s up to without even looking at a chart. Between the spread and the volume, I can also tell how many shares I can safely trade. Awesome.

Going around the screen… lower left is a plain daily chart. Middle column is PnF charts on two different scales. Right side is a bare 15 minute chart, which includes pre-market data. Assuming something catches my eye as a possible trade, we move on to….

The Triple Screen

I call this workspace the triple-screen, because I first heard about the idea in Alexander Elder’s books, and that’s what he called it. A few other traders on the web, like The Chart Strategist, use it as well. I don’t really follow the “triple screen” approach as outlined in the books, but I have always like the idea of using multiple data resolutions together (I did a lot of work in college about multiresolution analysis of musical scores, so it’s kinda what I’m used to doing with complex data, I guess).

Triple Screen

Now, we’re mostly back to the standard eotpro indicator set again, though I spice it up with some of my own creations from time to time. Pictured here is MRK from today, which set up beautifully with a box play right after I shut the workspace down to focus on ES. Arrgh!

To me, this is important: What I’m looking for on this chart, first and foremost, is an indicator that disagrees with my idea. I already know what I want to do before I get to this screen, so asking if the chart agrees with me is the wrong way to go. Your brain will make it agree, even if it doesn’t. Sad, but true. So, it helps keep me honest to ask why I shouldn’t trade. If that’s a hard question, then the charts must agree with me pretty well. That’s not to say I pass if I can find one thing that looks wrong… this is just to help me find the wrong things, so I can think about them instead of glossing over them.

(all this has to happen in a split second, because I usually only spot the trade a few seconds before I need to be entering it. Also, for most trades it’s part of my strategy to look at the plain bid/ask/last info a little bit to make the final go/no-go decision. That also takes several seconds to assess. So, if there’s no time for the triple-screen, I trust myself and enter the trade first, then check for reasons I should get right back out. That’s not for beginners!)

Anyway, you’ll note that the 3-min chart has the full EOTPro_JMK indicator, while the 15 and 60 minute charts just have the madder line. I got tired of agonizing over what it means when I get a 15-minute signal but no 3-minute signal, for instance. In the end, I decided that I’m trading off the 3-minute chart, and so that’s where my signals should come from. The 15 and 60 also don’t have Fib Extensions, for the same reason. They are there for reference and not entry/exit. I’ve made the same adjustment to my futures charts, and am happier that way.

Oct 23

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


DT suggested this trip for the single guys in the VO. Of course the married guys are welcome if their wives are into that sort of thing. NSFW! I couldn’t post the link at the family site, so its at MtM:Rated R.

I don’t condone this sort of thing, but DT seems to think it will bring the VO closer together.


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Oct 23

In the morning, I really only had 2 viable candidates in stocks. I traded one of them, for a small loss, but managed to trade my way out of most of it. I don’t really recommend that beginners try to do that, especially if you are feeling bad about the loss. But, I wasn’t feeling bad…. I was feeling like I was born to make money. :-) Don’t know why… don’t care why. Just did.

So, after mostly breaking even after 3 stock trades, I went on to futures and ended the day up +2 ES points. I know that’s not much, but I do feel pretty happy about it. I had 2 or 3 other trades that didn’t fill at the price I wanted, and they would have been winners. I just don’t have the confidence I need to go ahead and jump in at the market… I’d apparently rather sit on the sidelines hoping for 1 tick better entry. hrm…

Anyway… as you can see in the video, I’m still experimenting with trend channels… due to time constraints, I wasn’t able to show anything in detail. Maybe tomorrow I will just pick one trade and explain it completely and fully.

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Oct 23
Oct 22

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I found this over at The Trading Digest. Very funny!


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Oct 22

You think anyone is short IMB?

IMB chart

Oct 22

8 Futures trades, including my very first gold (ZG) trade. Now, I’ve traded ES, YM, EMD, and ZG. Pretty neat. Anyhow, I’ve started keeping my eye on trend channels. I was thinking about how the box play works, and I started wondering about other geometric approaches to trading. I started reading this humongous elitetrader thread, with a methodology built on top of trend channels. Not sure what I think of it yet, as it seems to rely on extremely early (almost psychic) detection of turning points… we’ll see.

5 wins and 3 losses…. not bad, but I’d rather have 6 wins and 2 losses… (of course I’d rather have 8 wins). I found the markets to be pretty unruly today… in fact, one thing that made that crystal clear was that I had to keep widening my trend channels to accommodate all the volatility. The trends weren’t changing direction very often, but getting wider instead. The dreaded “broadening” formation. I hate those!

Watch this post's video on Youtube

Oct 22

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Look at this chart of the S&P 500 for the last three years:

spx_102207_1.png

Looks pretty good, right? Well, here it is compared to the Euro / Dollar cross:

spx_102207_2.png

Meh. New highs it ain’t. What about compared to Crude Oil?

spx_102207_3.png

GAH! How about Gold?

spx_102207_4.png

Wow.

Now, we can argue how relevant gold is to the world these days as a proxy for money, but it’s the same all over whenever you try to plot stock prices relative to any real asset. In terms of paper assets (like Dollars, Euros or other fiat money) we’re going gangbusters. In terms of real assets (like oil and gold, but pick your favorite), things don’t look as good. This is how I reconcile the recent price rises in stocks with the underlying economic weakness and the potential for a recession. Bernanke’s got the DollarCopter flying high and dropping $$ on the world. I believe that we are seeing depreciating “paper” assets finding their way into real assets: good companies and commodities. The prices for these things quoted in dollars are rising accordingly–more money chasing fewer (or the same amount) of goods. I believe Uncle Miltie said it best:

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.
–Nobel Economist Milton Friedman

The 2000 stock bubble popped and flowed to become the housing and credit bubble, and is now flowing to real assets everywhere. Private equity and even governments of the world are buying assets hand over fist, though it did slow some during the subprime scare this summer. Where does it stop? Who will be the bagholder? You, the paper-currency wielding slack-jawed proletariat, unless you own some real assets. Buy wisely!


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Oct 22

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


This song from Incubus pretty much sums up my trading and life exactly. The video with it is kind of WTF, so ignore that and just listen:

Nowhere Fast by Incubus

Will I ever get to, to where it is that I am going
Will I ever follow through with what I… with what I have planned
I guess it’s possible, that I have been a bit distracted
And the directions for me are a lot less in demand.
In demand.
Will I ever get to where I’m going
If I do will I know when I’m there
If the wind blew me in the right direction. Yeah
Would I even care
I would.

I take a look around, it’s evident the scene has changed.
And there are times when I feel improved, improved upon the past.
And there are times when I can’t seem to understand at all.
And yes it seems as though I’m going nowhere really fucking fast.
Nowhere fast.

Will I ever get to where I’m going
If I do will I know when I’m there
If the wind blew me in the right direction. Yeah
Would I even care
I would.

Will I ever get to where I’m going
If I do, will I know when I am there
If the wind blew me in the right direction. Yeah
Would I even care
I would.

Watch this post's video on Youtube


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Oct 22
Oct 21

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


This weekend I looked back over several trades that I made. There are a few setups that seem to have the potential for much more profit than I was able to extract.

I don’t know if I will be able to pull it off, but I want to try and wait for these setups exclusively. For some reason, I have a compulsion to trade everyday - that work permits. Hopefully, by waiting on these pristine setups, I can increase my expectancy. The next logical step would be to increase my contract size, which is another goal in itself. However, if I’m unable to wait on what I think is the “easy money,” then I will keep piking!


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Oct 19

Just one video today… I was out for a lot of the day, away from the markets. I normally take off Thursdays, but I moved it back to Friday this week. I thought I wouldn’t miss much on OPEX day. Boy, was I wrong! What a big down day! But, I did manage to make a stock trade and a futures trade, for 2 wins. Not bad, I guess… One of these days, I will manage to really capitalize on one of these huge market moves. I never seem to get much out of them, even when I am trading.

Hopefully Monday will be a big reaction day.

[Edit: check out today's pre-market episode of Suck My Nasdaq....

... I watched it after the close, which makes it pretty hilarious when he says "Here's what I do know... the market's not going to go down." What timing!]

Watch this post's video on Youtube
Watch this post's video on Youtube

Oct 19

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


101907.png

MtM:Rated R has been updated. I’m in a generous mood, so I wanted to give something back. NSFW!


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


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