Jan 31

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I just got off the phone with my cousin. He’s several years younger, and he normally doesn’t listen to my advice (for good reason).

He just told me he has a huge bet on the Super Bowl. It doesn’t really matter at this point who he bet on, or the spread. He’s also in on a few of the prop bets. Each year he gambles heavily on the playoffs, the Super Bowl, March Madness, and college football. The only sport he does well on is the college games.

I’m going to send him the comments that MtM’s readers leave. I will not respond to anything that is said, but believe that I will be reading them for sure. Gambling and trading are comparable in many ways.

Can you help me out by giving your honest advice?

Btw, he has taken out loans, and his wife doesn’t realize how much money he owes already.


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Jan 31

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I agree with most of what LP said in this comment. Now if he would quite being a statesman, and get back to the name calling!

Unlike Bill I do believe in black swans. Not that not believing in it is bad either. (that’s the statesman in me). The problem is that I’m torn between two opposing philosophies. On one hand make money quickly and on the other hand make money slowly. Now the common misconception is that you can’t make money quickly without blowing up and if you make money slowly, you won’t blow up. And I not saying that either one is right or wrong. It’s how you design your risk, rules and the system.

Quant or no quant, I consider quantery as being similar charting. There is a right way and a wrong way to do it. Much like self proclaimed great chartists, the quants pop their collars too. We knock chartist for coming out with some very subject processes but yet we think that if we are presented with a bunch of number in excel, they will represent the truth. It’s human nature to find patterns. The mind is geared towards patterns. Maybe the best system is to look for the exception. They usually cost very little to bet on and pay out a lot even if it means that you may have to bet bunch of times more.

The bottom line is that we don’t know when catalytic events will take place. These events could be bad as well as good. Take Andrew Lahde for example, he took advantage of a prime opportunity that was skewed with extreme greed. So he made his money quickly. On the other hand we have heard countless stories of people making money slowly and giving it all back quickly.

The question is not how quickly or slowly we make the money, it more about how do we protect ourselves from the unknow. We shouldn’t seek to find out the unknow but rather just protect ourselves from the various possibilities. As Richard says “Trading is simple, you are complicated”. The smartest traders don’t mess around with chop but rather take appropriate bets at the most opportune times in the markets. Most of the great traders we know, tend to stay out of the markets until they have a clear edge, and even then they tend to risk appropriately and scale in as the position becomes more favorable. We dumbasses on the other hand tend to trade frequently and and scale out every time a position becomes favorable. This is all about fear and greed. It’s not about indicators, or trendlines or excel sheets.

So in a nut shell I am more interested in price, volume and extremes. The best part about the combination of those three is that you’ll know when you are right and when you are wrong fairly quickly.


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Jan 31

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HPT is taking another poll. In this one he poses the question of what is a realistic expectation of a day trader. Currently, negative and 100% are tied for first. Check out his site, and be sure to vote.

hpt-poll.png


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Jan 31
Jan 31

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1) you receive a head injury

2) the doctor forces you to undergo a rectal exam

3) when you protest, they sedate you and do it anyway

4) as you struggle to keep a finger from going in your ass, you strike a doctor

5) they file misdemeanor assault charges against YOU!


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Jan 31

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I almost left this comment on someone’s blog, but I decided to do it here instead. Keeping with the motto of Kicking People While They’re Down Since 2006, here it is:

Day trading is not an art, its a business! If you want to be an artist, take up finger painting.

colw1-3.jpg


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Jan 30

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Maybe it’s just me, but that beard seemed familiar…

bensmurf.png


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Jan 30

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benmessage.png


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Jan 29

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Poker and Trading.

Mr White, I think John has a good point. I would also like to add as an ex-pro poker player from vegas that I wouldnt give up trading for poker for anything. Why? Because when you finally become good enough at trading, you can go “all in” and get called all the time!!!!! Wouldnt Doyle Brunson love that! Also, in poker, you know what your max win is in 90% of situations WHICH MAKES IT EASIER to lay down a hand. But in trading, its always a fantasy that you are going to be short near the top of the day or long at the bottom. Also in poker you know the player on the other side of the bet. In trading come to think of it, wouldnt it be nice if as in poker if we could see ther faces of the guys on the opposite sides of our trade! Bet you could make a huge living just fading the weak traders, period. Its nice to dream.

As an aside, all poker players think they are better than they really are. In trading, reality comes home to roost much quicker, dont yuh think, mr. white?
Marc V


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Jan 29

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In light of recent events, this is worth a read.


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Jan 29
Jan 29

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Interesting!

If the prices are normalized to fall
within the range from −1 to +1 and subjected to the Fisher transform,
extreme price movements are relatively rare events. This means the turn-
ing points can be clearly and unambiguously identified.

Making a signal clearer doesn’t necessarily make it better.

I don’t have an opinion one way or another. However, it seems like it could be worth looking into.


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Jan 28

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Tradingtheories.com


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Jan 28

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What’s your Unicorn? :)

Ok in the news.
Today I suffered with my cache of prior data loss due to a uninstall/reinstall of multicharts (which also blew my eotpro). Recient consolidations in the futures + bugs still in the new Multicharts beta seem to be the root.

Lately I’ve been beating my head against a programing wall, having incremental successes understanding Mulicharts and Easy Language.

Having been inspired by the Rainbows I gave writing one a shot, turned out neat and is already there as a Moving Average Ribbon Indicator (that I found later… sheash) I boiled them down to 3 weighted moving average lines.

Big Deal, Everyone is doing it right?

I watched them wash above and below the price and gave writing a Signal in Multicharts a go.

Now remember I was enticed by the Channel Breakouts involving a lengh of bars back Highest high or Lowest Low.

Many rapid prototypings later (and using sword names as naming conventions) I present “Claymore”.

Lets Visualize this.. In easy language…

Claymore Visualization

inputs: Price(close),length(25), ma1(16), ma2(42), ma3(79);

variables:
AvgPrice (0),
RedValue (0),
GreenValue (0),
BlueValue (0),
TheSpread( 0 );

RedValue = waverage(price,ma1);
GreenValue = waverage(price,ma2);
BlueValue = waverage(price,ma3);

Value2 = GradientColor( slowk(length), 0, 100, rgb(255,0,0), rgb(0,250,250));
setplotcolor(99, value2);
TheSpread=TypicalPrice-BlueValue;
plot99(TheSpread,”Typ Avg”);
setplotwidth(99,2);

TheSpread=redvalue-bluevalue;
setplotcolor(1,rgb(255,32,32));
plot1(TheSpread,”RedLine”);

TheSpread=greenvalue-bluevalue;
setplotcolor(2,rgb(32,255,32));
plot2(thespread,”GreenLine”);
setplotwidth(2,2);

setplotcolor(3,rgb(32,32,255));
plot3(0,”BlueLine”);
setplotwidth(3,4);

So the ma3 line BECOMES the zero line. Neat huh?
You can really see when the Typical Price crosses with the RGB lines.

So.. A Signal. A Naked one at that. The null input activates a nacient stop loss that I need to figure out to make more robust.

the ma1-3 lines here were optimized for 10000 pt Original (due to the history data loss I had to use 10k Pt instead)

When you run this Signal, you will need to goto Format Objects, Properties Button, set max number of bars to reference to equal or greater than your ma3 number (for when you run some optimizations)

By the way, be sure to set a rough guess what your commissions per trade or share might be in the Properties Button AND Fixed Shares/Contracts to 2 (for future take ticks of profit on initial moves)

Signal Claymore

[IntrabarOrderGeneration = false]
inputs: null(0), ma1(16), ma2(42), ma3(79), price(close), priceh(High), pricel(low), StopLoss(291), BreakEven(80);

vars:
MP(0),
TP(0),
RedLine(0),
GreenLine(0),
BlueLine(0);

TP = typicalprice;

Redline = waverage(price,ma1);
greenline = waverage(price,ma2);
blueline = waverage(price,ma3);

if tp crosses below blueline
and greenline > blueline
then begin
SELLShort(”CM SE”) this bar;
end;

if tp crosses above blueline
and greenline < BlueLine
then begin
buy("CM LE") this bar ;
end;

if null <> 0 then begin
SetStopLoss(StopLoss);
SetBreakEven(BreakEven);
end;

I PAPER traded $450 off of 1 contract. The total run was like what.. 17.5 ES points? Yikes.

This method is just getting started. Doesn’t scalp worth a damn. It breaks the rules with not having real Money Management (ie stop loss and trailing stops) in it.

You get to watch the curves and move your stops accordingly.
You could add language to “sell” or “buy to cover” open positions based on MarketPosition and when the Typical Price crosses back over a red or green line. All sorts of fun here.

These types of Signals are prone to a high trade count. Future investigation into BarsSinceEntry are in order as well.

A Pretty Picture..
Claymore


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Jan 28

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This comment was left by the Lonely Trader on Dt’s site. DT has a man crush on Obama, and has posted pics of him at the beach. I wish he hadn’t deleted so many comments, but I imagine it was some sort of racist bullshit. Personally, I think you should just allow those people to expose themselves for the idiots they are.

No, shit-for-brains…I’m a military officer trying to keep our boys and girls alive in the midst of one of teh greatest foreign policy coups in our nation’s short history, while you sit on your overweight, fast-food-eating carcass of an arse in the US and act all indignant and patriotic and all that blah.

It’s ignorant citizens like you who let our politicians run afoul of international law and trash our credibility abroad, and then vote for them again so they can finish the job. And it’s citizens like you who put your little red, white and blue flags on your big shiny SUVs, while carefully placing your “No Dogs, Sailors or Soldiers on the Grass” sign on your front lawns.

And your comment about beheadings is putting the cart before the horse, I’m afraid.

You make me sick. I hate the fact that I swore an oath to defend and die for you.

GFY


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