This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
HPT is taking another poll. In this one he poses the question of what is a realistic expectation of a day trader. Currently, negative and 100% are tied for first. Check out his site, and be sure to vote.
This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
January 31st, 2008 at 5:25 pm
I doubt that the whole “98% of futures accounts are closed at a net loss” is very far off. I have little doubt that mine will be in that category. I think the odds with stocks are a little better.
January 31st, 2008 at 5:41 pm
wow! what happened to cause that line of thinking?
hopefully, it turns around…don’t take this the wrong way…i probably shouldn’t start off like that, but i really mean it…u r working on your masters, and u know u r a smart guy…however, didn’t u just start doing this? i honestly think that all of us start off with unrealistic expectations…i’m not discounting how u feel right now, or even if u have assessed your situation correctly…i’m just trying to get u to take some of the pressure off yourself…this doesn’t happen for anyone overnight…u may be better off trading stocks…that’s for u to decide…im just wondering if the expectations were a little out of whack, and now reality is setting in
everyone goes through that process…well, almost everyone…i know i was starry eyed, and i should actually be on my yacht right now instead of posting on this blog…reality set in, and then i could actually continue with a more level head…however, it may just take a while longer than expected…none of us know the outcome, but i would hate to see u think that somehow u r not cut out for futures (or even stocks)…take your time, and it will get better
hopefully, i misread your comment and jumped to the wrong conclusion…in time, u will get the hang of this if u keep at it, and find something that fits u
January 31st, 2008 at 5:56 pm
I voted 25%. I think the answer is probably somewhere between 20-45%.
[Edit: over the long term. Windfalls can happen.]
You might want to see this.
http://tradermike.net/2006/07/poll_what_are_impressive_percentage_returns_from_trading/
And this.
http://tradermike.net/2006/07/a_question_about_percentage_returns/
January 31st, 2008 at 8:24 pm
Thanks for the vote of confidence, MWF! I am a bit glum right now but it has only been a month. I’ve lost $2k so far but haven’t given up just yet. I’m sure you’re right. I’ll probably trade a lot better once it is a part-time gig and there isn’t so much pressure. I think I’m just going to scalp the ES premarket with one contract for a few months and see what I can figure out. I can’t lose more than, oh, $100/day that way. lol.
February 1st, 2008 at 5:12 am
michael: it takes time, and its only money :-)
bill: thanks for the links…i was surprised that 59% came in under 50%…there aren’t as many ostriches as i thought…on the surface i agree with TM about 200 to 400 percent gains, because of the compounding…however, in real life, i have yet to meet someone to do that consistently…he points out ugly’s 40R month, but he went back to work, so that obviously didn’t continue…i know i haven’t done it!