This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
I just got off the phone with my cousin. He’s several years younger, and he normally doesn’t listen to my advice (for good reason).
He just told me he has a huge bet on the Super Bowl. It doesn’t really matter at this point who he bet on, or the spread. He’s also in on a few of the prop bets. Each year he gambles heavily on the playoffs, the Super Bowl, March Madness, and college football. The only sport he does well on is the college games.
I’m going to send him the comments that MtM’s readers leave. I will not respond to anything that is said, but believe that I will be reading them for sure. Gambling and trading are comparable in many ways.
Can you help me out by giving your honest advice?
Btw, he has taken out loans, and his wife doesn’t realize how much money he owes already.
This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com
January 31st, 2008 at 8:20 pm
What is his edge? Is it a backtested strategy or just intuition? I’d imagine there are intelligent ways to bet on games, but we have no idea what he is doing or what the probabilities are.
January 31st, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Jesus, so this guy is lying to his wife, gambling with money he doesn’t have and (though you don’t say it) potentially risking his marriage, his security and his family. This guy is obviously not thinking things through. If reasoning didn’t get him into this mess, it’s probably not going to get him out, and you’ve got a much better chance of hitting emotional buttons than we have.
Some times the true costs of his actions have to be made real. It’s all fine to know intellectually that he can lose or that losses could jeopardize his marriage, but maybe he has to understand it. That’s why many junkies like your cousin have to bottom out. I hope that “bottom” still leaves him with something.
Why haven’t you told his wife instead of coming to us?
January 31st, 2008 at 8:46 pm
The thing about gambling ( and i speak from experience ) is that its impossible to win consistently, you
have to have an edge or somthing on your side to tip the odds in your favor, and blindy picking teams, or
even calculating the teams defense/offense is not gonna give you that edge, I know a little bit about how
casinos operate, and how do you think they stay in business? Is it that all the games are fair? Nope. The
House always has the edge, take blackjack for example you are delt 2 cards both face up and the dealer is dealt
2 cards, 1 face up and 1 face down, and the face down is the casinos edge, you never know what he/she has, so you
must “hit” until you get a high number, this usually force you to bust and the casino gets ur chips!! Anyway
all the games at the casino have the odds in the favor of the house, and my point is if the odds aren’t in your
favor you cant win, at least consitently, and reguarding stocks… im not much of a guru, but from what I have
seen daytraders take calculated risks using technical analysis where there is a greater chance of success
than there is of failure (thus they have an edge) and the moment things aren’t going as planned most traders
get out of the trade and take small loses.
February 1st, 2008 at 12:48 am
I see this a lot. Into a hole, use CC’s and all available capital to try to breakeven. eventually this ends badly. the one question, if he is basically bankrupt now, the extra betting may not be the worst. 10k or 100k in court may play the same. the big problem, imho, is that he is married, involving others in a significant way. maybe it will take 5 years to get out of this hole, but if his team loses their credit is done for 10. if he had a kid, multiply the disaster by about 100. here is the next question, if he wins, will he really quit? or will he try it again? either way, seek professional help.
February 1st, 2008 at 2:08 am
Are you sure you’re talking about your cousin? Sadly, it could be a page from my life, but without borrowed capital…
I think Tyro got it right–logic and reason probably won’t impact him. Emotion might. But here’s my ideas for both:
Some reasoning: Ask him if he’d put the same money down with you on just a coin toss. What about if you get to call it? The odds are the same either way! One of our mental/ emotional fallicies as humans is when we “choose” one outcome or the other (heads/tails), we feel that we have a greater chance of success, but it’s not true. It’s a false “edge”. So he thinks he can pick the winner, but it’s all just a toss-up.
However, if he won’t hear it and thinks he can pick the winners, even if 2/3 of the time, it’s still possible to get many losses in row by random chance. I’m sure his bet size is way out of proportion to the odds, with the loans and all. If he drastically reduces his “position” size, then he could apply his “edge” over many games and systematically win in the long run. If he says he can’t be right consistently in the long run by hitting singles, then why does it make sense to do the big coin toss blowout? Traders do this all the time and lose big, even if they know better.
Some emotion: He’s got big problems with compulsive behavior, and he’s breaking his wife’s trust big time. I know I’m the world’s biggest hypocrite for saying that, but at least I can afford the financial losses I took. If he’s risking his home or his family’s livelihood, then he is being a bad husband / father(?). Ask him if he’d advise his future son-in-law to do the same thing to one of his daughters that he’s doing to his family. He’s acting like a child, not a man. Tell him to be a man and do the right thing.
This is a tough situation, John, and I wish you and him the best. :(
February 1st, 2008 at 4:14 am
Fuck that. How big of a dude is he? I know he’s not your brother, but kick his ass anyway. He’s acting like a fucking jerk of a husband. I tried talking to my cousin once about something serious like that and he basically said, “Hey, your not my father….”
So I talked to his brother and father and THEY kicked his ass.
Seriously. He needs an asswhooping. Let me know if you need help. I know people in low places and they work cheap.
Do it for his wife and future family, and for the family he has now.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:00 am
If his wife’s hot, I’d explain to him that doubling down doesn’t work, but that tripling down will fix things for sure. Then I’d make sure the wife knew I was “there for her” if she needed to talk about, you know, anything. Because I’m so sensitive.
February 1st, 2008 at 9:03 am
LMAO @ Richard! Given up on the “Supermarket Moms” and moving into the “Gambler’s Widow” markets, are we?
February 1st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
Richard: LOL! sensitive isn’t really the word that comes to mind when i think of u…as long as they believe it is all that matters
Pro: lol…richard does get around…i think its some sort of tribal thing…since we can no longer behead our enemies and parade around the streets with their noggin on a stick, its safer (and legal) to bang their moms and wives
February 2nd, 2008 at 7:33 pm
beheading foes is back in vogue, as it turns out
February 2nd, 2008 at 10:32 pm
jay: make sure u put it on youtube!