Dec 11

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I started out today like yesterday, trading well and making my little bits of money. Then I did something dumb and it all went to hell after that. First my good trades:

AMZN Short. After the big upper tail, I thought it would fall back to the 5-ema, and it worked out as I expected:

amzn-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-12-11-101521.GIF

Here’s a Heikin-Ashi Tick Chart. I thought it did a good job of showing trends and I watched a 100-tick chart alongside my 15 min today to help me see trend changes. I’ll keep watching them in the future:

amzn-tickcandle-last-2-days_100tks-2007-12-11-101156.GIF

MA Long. This set up as a good Trader-X “beyond the fib extension” trade, though I got stopped out at breakeven and scratched the trade:

ma-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-12-11-165724.GIF

Then, I got the bright idea to go long RIMM and hold into the Fed. WTF was I thinking? I thought I could get out quick if I was wrong. Think again:

rimm-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-12-11-165908.GIF

A quick -4R. So much for my good trading these last few days!

I scalped AAPL long after that and made about a third of that loss back. We bounced, printed a green candle, and I went long when the tape started to surge at 191.50:

aapl-candle-2h_3m-2007-12-11-170021.GIF

Then I took a shot on scalping GS Long, small position, but top-ticked it and lost -1R:

gs-candle-2h_3m-2007-12-11-170052.GIF

Then I went crazy! I went long VMW for a swing overnight at 96.01, got scared and sold it at 95.60 when SPY broke support. Then I went absolutely out of my skull and bought FXP at 73.85 and I’m holding it overnight.

All in all, I was down about -2.5R on the day. It was so easy to trade AAPL after the Fed, when people were dumping shares! I think it was Teresa Lo who said it’s less risky to trade in crazy circumstances like this than in calm markets, and I think that’s true. I just had to walk in and pick up the money. People getting out at all costs (like I did in RIMM) created an opportunity. There is a huge edge there–it’s like waiting until all the cards are out on the table before deciding whether or not to bet! This is the best way to play the Fed, and the only way I will play it from now on. It makes no sense to gamble on the news like I did. When you have no idea how the coin toss will come out, you might as well just flip the coin and give the money to someone else if it falls against you. There is no edge there, and it shouldn’t be traded. This is a new rule for me now. I will always be flat going into Fed announcements or other big news events.


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Nov 14

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I thought we’d sell off the gap this morning, but I didn’t know about the rest of the day. So I was looking for a quick short. I chose to play AAPL. I placed potential support lines from looking at a 5-day 15′ chart:

aapl-candle-5d_15m-2007-11-14-151859.GIF

I went short AAPL on a breakdown of the 1 min OR (orange line = entry, red line = stop):

aapl-candle-2h_1m-2007-11-14-151911.GIF

I moved my stop to breakeven when I was up about +1R. I had to go to a meeting right at 10:00 ET, so I bailed when I did on a downspike (exit at blue line). I would have covered half at some point and I wouldn’t have captured all of the move today, but if I were free to watch it I would have let it run more. I can’t believe how far it eventually fell! It went past every potential support I drew! The bear is still intact in my mind.

I made +1.3R, about 1% on my equity. Met my +1R goal for the day! I’m doing great being patient, not feeling like I have to trade, and moving on potential opportunities instead of trying to find something to trade. Big difference. Also, looking for +1R is so much easier than looking for infinityR. I know when I have succeeded. I don’t overtrade. I still need to work my Seven Step plan, as taking these trades now is ahead of the steps I have for myself. Gotta be careful, because that has always ended in tears.


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Sep 11

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I traded 5 times today–2 wins, 1 scratch and 2 losses, total -0.63R. Not good, but not bad, I guess. I also skipped two trades that would have been nice winners after the fact, but that’s how it goes when you play it safe. Here’s the trades:

IMCL Long. Traded this 5 min. chart, based on a green-red-green formation as my setup. I pulled this out of the air, rather than sticking to my fledgling system, and I was stopped out. I hate gaps where the stock was upgraded or downgraded! It seems like they never extend past the OR high and typically languish. So, a dumb trade, -1R.

imcl-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-11-095447.GIF

Next, ISIS Long. Hayduke called it out on Wallstreak. It was set to break 13, which was a pivot point from the daily. Looked great. I bought with a stop at 13.02, sold half at 13.26 and then bailed on the rest after a retrace to my entry point. Too bad there wasn’t more follow through, or too bad I didn’t treat it like a scalp and dump it all when the momentum stalled, or I would have made more. +0.4R.

isis-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-11-162540.GIF

IMCL Short. No chart–I thought there was a lot of selling pressure in IMCL based on how I got spanked earlier. So I went short, realized I was wrong, and I got out very shortly thereafter at my entry point when I got a gift from Mother Market. Scratch.

AAPL Short. I was ahead of my time! I entered based on a candle closing weak below the 0% fib level, after continued failure of support at 135.42. Buyers came in and I bailed for a -0.37R loss, since I decided I was wrong. I would have been stopped out anyway, but look at the second chart to see what AAPL did later in the day!

aapl-candle-last-day_10m-2007-09-11-131652.GIFaapl-candle-last-day_10m-2007-09-11-163616.GIF

Finally, I did some POT. Skyb0x on Wallstreak said it was sitting at 90, and it was. There was a big seller there, and POT just kept rising up to that level and hung there most of the afternoon. It just couldn’t break through. I had a buy stop in at 90.02, but I took it off and was ready to quit, then I was it lean on 90 again. It suddenly popped, and when the ticker said 90.04 I bought at market. I was filled at 90.02, and we shot to 90.20 or so. I sold half, and held the rest all the way back to my entry point. +0.4R. I should have traded this one as a scalp, too, especially since it was close to the end of the day. In my mind, when trying to scalp you’re trying to capture the smallest impulsive move you can, with the largest position size you can. My stop was 12.80, and it should have been much, much tighter! I was trying to trade it more as a trending move, where some retracements are acceptable. I thought I would sell half and then hold the rest, and it would eventually hit 91 or more, but POT took a dive down to the 89.20’s. At least I kept some of the money!

pot-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-11-164353.GIF

On low volume crappy days, I’m starting to think that scalping is better, along with fading strength and weakness. Most of my strategies and setups are breakout, trend-continuation plays. I need to get some working strategies that scalp and fade strength and weakness. Then I’ll have a toolset to better deal with any market environment, other than random listless chop. That’s a no win situation for practically everybody.

I watched the pre-carnage in AAPL in the afternoon from a volume based chart. Each candle is composed of a number of shares traded, rather than by the passing of time. I also have two other studies on the chart–the bid / ask volume trend (BAV) that measures volume of shares traded at the bid vs. at the ask, and on balance volume (OBV):

AAPL Entire Day:
aapl-vccandle-last-day_30000-2007-09-11-170508.GIF

AAPL During my Wallstreak Commentary. You can see the trend changes I was calling out in OBV:
aapl-vccandle-400b_30000-2007-09-11-170544.GIF

AAPL during the big swing in the afternoon (while I was going long POT):
aapl-vccandle-400b_30000-2007-09-11-170606.GIF

I don’t know what use the BAV trend is, really, since trades could go off at the bid consistently, and the bid could be getting walked up all day long. Maybe it’s good during a sideways period in the market to tell if the pressure is to buy or sell before it breaks out? Then again, maybe it’s useless information. Any ideas would be appreciated.

The idea behind OBV on this chart is to keep kind of an integrated volume, where the OBV line will go up if there is more volume during up moving candles than downward moving candles. If there is a big divergence between price and OBV, it would suggest that a price move is not sustainable. I’m trying to see if the volume precedes the price, or if they are simultaneously occurring, or if it’s all just random. Let me know what you think.


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Sep 10

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I traded live today, but with only 0.5% position size rather than my usual 1% risk. I decided to trade 1 time, and if it was a loss, I was done. The first two broke even, so I kept going (just one more). I took only three trades, two for very slight profits and one for +1.56R, for a total of +1.68R for the day. This puts me back above the initial funding level of my account, which is important to me, psychologically. Big day for me. :)

Anyway, here’s the trades:

Gold Fields Limited (ADR) (NYSE: GFI) Short, 5′

I traded this on the 5 minute chart. I applied fibs as inspired by 00NR7. I’m not really trading his system, I’m feeling out one of my own, but I am borrowing from his excellent ideas (Thanks, 00NR7!) I wanted the fibs to capture the swing high and low of the morning as the opening range. This can tend to be imprecise, so it’s more of an art. I went short as the 10:00 candle closed below the 0% fib, and closed weak. I missed that there was no volume uptick on this entry bar, which I think is important.

This was the bottom tick for quite a while! I HATE it when I take a trade that immediately goes in the red. The next half an hour was nerve-racking, as you can see. I covered half the position after the 10:25 rally failed–I was not proven correct, so I lightened the position when I was given the chance. For all I knew we were going back up. There was a lot of support at the 16.44 level, and when the ask dropped that low, nobody was selling. I thought for sure I would lose -1R after my entry, but I got a break and the trade moved in my favor. After price stalled out at the -19.1% fib, I covered on a reaction to 16.39, which was the point at where I would still show a profit on the position. With all the difficulty getting there, I thought this was a gift and I should just bail. Then the floor dropped out, and went on to way pass the -38% fib target! Almost made $16. I would have handled this trade better if my entry hadn’t been off so much, but at least I walked away in the black. Important for me right now. +0.1R

gfi-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-10-153111.GIF

GigaMedia Limited (NASDAQ: GIGM) Long, 15′

I saw Zoomie point this out on Wallstreak, and I liked the setup–a Trader-X OR breakout. I placed Trader-X fibs as prescribed. When we broke the OR high, I watched. I didn’t like the upper tail on the 12:00 bar, but I entered on the next one anyway as we went above the close of that bar. Then sideways in the red, again. Crap. Well, after the 12:45 bar failed to take out the high of the day, and retraced way back down, I sold half at 15.36 for a 0.03 loss. Like on GFI, I was not proven correct, and I was back underwater again, and I didn’t want to take a full -1R loss on the position. Then we popped, but that too had problems. I sold the rest at 15.45 to offset my loss on the first half. GIGM should have been taking off, as the QQQQ’s were rallying hard at this time. So I just bailed, and in retrospect, that was the best thing to do for me. So another trade, another “profit”: +0.03R

gigm-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-09-10-152631.GIF

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Long, 10′

I was watching AAPL go sideways on declining volume. I actually thought it looked like a bear pause before another leg down, and I expected it to break down. At exactly that point, we had up movement on a volume uptick, so I changed my mind and looked long. Sloth on Wallstreak was talking about it as well, so I went long as we had a strong close above the 38% fib level, and also a pivot point from two days ago. My target was the 100% level at $137. This trade was in the black right from my entry. Much better to bite your nails over a profit and whether you should stay than to do the same thing over a loss! We pushed for 137, then pulled back and got stuck at 136.50. I sold half there, thinking we would likely fall back to my entry point, and I wouldn’t suffer any movement below that level, so I wanted to book some profit. Well, more buyers came in and pushed us up to $137, and I sold the rest there. There was another $1.00 to be had, but I’ll take what I got. :) Never buy at the bottom and always sell too soon, and you can’t help but make money, as Baron Rothschild once said. Trade PnL: +1.56R

aapl-candle-last-2-days_10m-2007-09-10-152354.GIF

So in conclusion, trading with these fibs imposes structure on the market for me. I don’t try to feel what the direction is, or where to enter–I let the fibs guide me. I traded similar setups to my paper-trades on Thursday. I’m surprised that I’m doing well with AAPL, as I have tended to get whipsawed pretty bad in it in the past. When I use a proper structure and stop, I do better than when I press and trade too big with a stop that’s too tight. Basically, I think I threw away that 30% profit I had by trying to trade inside of the noise of the market. Bad idea. I’ve been thinking about changing my stop rules to use either a candle-based method or some multiple of the average true range over the last few bars, whichever is bigger. I bet that this would have saved me a lot of money in August. I’ve noticed that lots of NR7’s are getting broken out of both sides on the next candle. Maybe when market volatility is high, narrow range candles aren’t good ways to pick stops. Just a few of my scattered thoughts.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GFI | |
GIGM | |
AAPL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Sep 6

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Not me, the markets got pummeled! I paper-traded my variation of a system inspired by 00NR7’s system as I said yesterday that I would. There were so many Briefing gappers that I didn’t even use my Prophet.net scan. I did make some changes to my plans, though. I watched 5, 10 and 15 minute charts for the setups, and I took setups that weren’t strictly hammers, and I also faded some gaps rather than trading the direction of the gap. I took 4 trades, 3 wins and 1 loss, for a total of +5.2R for the day. I met my +5R goal in one day! Awesome.

Thanks to everyone who commented on my rant from yesterday. I was humbled and blown away by all the support I received, and it really helped. I know this is only one day, but I plan to stick with it and keep my focus, so I’m optimistic about the future. It kind of proves to me that I do have some skills; I was just out of whack for the last two weeks. This pace and style of trading seems to fit my personality much better than shooting from the hip 17 times a day. Maybe someday I’ll get there, but I don’t need to start there!

The charts of my “trades” are below, with the usual orange=entry, red=stop, light blue=partial, blue=exit format:

CHINA 5′ Short Continuation
china-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-06-143442.GIF

MGG 5′ Long Gap Fade
mgg-candle-last-day_5m-2007-09-06-143518.GIF

PSUN 15′ Short Gap Fade (I got whipsawed out, but the trade did eventually go in my intended direction. I entered based on a break from an inside NR7 candle)
psun-candle-last-day_15m-2007-09-06-143458.GIF

AAPL 10′ Long Gap Fade
aapl-candle-last-day_10m-2007-09-06-143423.GIF


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Jul 31

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I traded 11 positions today–4 wins for +4.9R, 7 losses for -5.1R, net -0.2R. I’m really shooting myself in the foot with some of the plays I take! Once again, I held losers too long, though I executed the winners well. AAPL spanked me three times! I’ll stop trading a stock if it gives me two losses in a day. If I get two losers, I’m not reading the stock right, and any more trades on it will be out of revenge to “get my money back”. So, with any one stock, it’s two strikes and I’m out of it for the day. That would have saved me 1.1R today.

Here’s a chart of my PnL so far as a Prop Trader (the area highlighted is today’s trading alone):

pro_pnl_73107.png

So basically, I’m flat. I have a few good trades, and lots of little bad ones. I need to keep away from “scalping” until I get it right. I had the idea to only scalp from a PnF chart, and my exit signal is if the column switches over. My natural sense of timing burned me a few times today, both on entries and exits.

Anyway, here’s the two good ones from today:

AMZN
amzn-candle-4h_5m-2007-07-31-095859.GIF

SNDK
sndk-candle-last-day_15m-2007-07-31-161842.GIF


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Jul 30

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Here’s a Pile ‘O Charts from my trades today. I took seven trades, 3 losers for -2.2R, two breakeven, and two winners for +4.6R, leaving me at +2.4R for the day. My prop account overall PnL is up about +1.5R from my starting balance. I’m happy with those results for now, especially on the last few days we’ve had! I need to be quicker to cut a loser–I still have some of that bias left over from all of my retail trades, trying to save that daytrade!

Here’s the charts. As always, Red is my stop, orange my entry, green lines are for targets, and blue lines mark exits. On my trade in Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL), I partialed out successfully, taking some profits and letting the rest run, giving the one big win of 3.53R.

CAL Short (My good trade for the day)
cal-candle-last-2-days_15m-2007-07-30-111424.GIF

AAPL Short (Quick -1R that afterward turned and went way beyond my target! DOH!)
aapl-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-111511.GIF

CFC Short
cfc-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-111529.GIF

BIDU Short
bidu-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-111443.GIF

ISRG Long
isrg-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-141740.GIF

RIMM Long
rimm-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-143023.GIF

CROX Long
crox-candle-last-day_5m-2007-07-30-141555.GIF

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
CAL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Jul 3

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I traded Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) today from a 1 minute chart. I saw the setup on that timeframe, so I stuck to it, even though other timeframes called to me with their siren song.

The Setup

I was looking for setups as I talked about yesterday: A big move up, a shallow retrace, and a base breakout. I stalked a few names that failed, including NOV and QCOM. I watched the strength in AAPL, after a mention by johnson from Wallstreak. Because of my oath to only focus on my one setup, I didn’t want to jump in and chase the stock.

However, a bit later on, I was watching AAPL’s 1 minute chart, and saw this setup:

aapl-candle-2h_1m-2007-07-03-103914.GIF

This is similar to my chosen setup, in that it is a base breakout, just at the high of the day rather than after a retrace. I consider this to be riskier than a base after a retrace, because you will often get to retest the day’s high, while in this setup there is no guarantee that price will continue to move up. The setup was compelling, though, so I took the trade, ignoring my advice to myself from yesterday.

The Trigger

I went long as price made a new high on the upper channel on my chart, filled at $125.70, with a stop at $125 even. The stop probably should have been tighter, but I wanted to give it more room to work out–a byproduct of my restricted daytrades. The target was the previous all time high of $127.61 as seen on the daily:

aapl-candle-six-months_1d-2007-07-03-104812.GIF

Since I was trading off of the 1 minute chart, I didn’t really expect this target to be hit, but that’s where I would take profits if I wasn’t stopped out.

Trade Management

I managed the trade as shown on this 1 minute chart:

aapl-candle-2h_1m-2007-07-03-104705.GIF

You can see all of the places that I raised my stop. I described them in (almost) real time on Wallstreak. I trailed the stop up as new swing lows were formed on lower volume, and then price moved up on higher volume. Then price stalled out, and the volume trend reversed–low volume on the advances. Here is where a little man in a red suit appeared on my shoulder and said “Prospectus! (if that is your real name) switch to the 5-minute chart! The base is holding well on that timeframe!” Ignoring the temptation, I kept to my 1 minute chart and the stops based on that price / volume action, and ended up getting stopped out for a 0.79R profit.

Takeaway

This brings up an important lesson: Had I listened to the Beelzebub of Trading, I could have held on with my stop at breakeven and exited near the close around $127.20 for 2.1R. Equally as likely, price could have retraced to my entry point and I would have exited with nothing. Further, if the Father of Trading Lies was able to convince me to switch timeframes once, what’s to stop me from switching again? “Hey, there’s good support on the 15 minute timeframe, but you’d have to drop your stop a bit wider than you thought. But it’ll probably bounce from there!” And from there, if price kept retreating, he’d say “Hey, hold it overnight! It’s gotta come back! Look at the daily chart!”

No. Based on my information and the timeframe for making my entry decision, my best action was to get stopped out as I did. You can’t base the wisdom of a decision on the eventual outcome. You have to base it on the best probability for the desired outcome, taking the information known at the time into account.

Your trading timeframe is a paradigm–a way you look at reality. Reality is bid, ask and volume. That’s it. Everything else is some kind of derivative of those tangibles. A 1 minute chart tells a different story than a 15 mintue chart, a daily chart, or a weekly chart. If you change your paradigm mid-trade, you are fooling yourself and probability (there’s that word again) will come to bite you someday. I would have gotten away with it today if I had switched–but what about when I take a 4R loss, or worse, by switching around, and price keeps going against me? If you don’t have timeframe rules for your trading, you should. They may not be the same as mine, but they should be designed to keep you honest and keep your Trading Devil at bay.

Plan your trade, and trade your plan!

Trade Summary:

AAPL Long
Entry: $125.70, Stop: $125.00, Target: $127.61
Exit: $126.25, P/L: 0.79R

Trade Grade:

pl3.jpg

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
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AAPL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Jun 8

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I had entered a trade yesterday in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) before I wrote my post about GOOG and my thoughts on setup selection. I traded because I wanted to trade, which is a bad idea.

Anyway, here it is:

aapl-candle-last-day_5m-2007-06-08-143825.GIF

What can I say. Poor setup, poor stop, target was $120, which doesn’t really jive with the timeframe, just dumb. At least my 1R-based position size was in line with my equity risk tolerance. I guess I proved I can take a bunch of risk and get stopped out at breakeven. I see this as a revenge trade for GOOG yesterday. I did differently today what I should have done to avoid a loss yesterday. Since that’s really what I wanted to do in my heart-of-hearts, I guess this trade is a success in that regard.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
AAPL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Feb 7

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I took a quick trade in Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) as I saw it approaching the high of Monday, 5 Feb:

aapl-candle-last-3-days_15m-2007-02-07-130351.GIF

At about noon, it took off, blowing through $85 and moving on up. My entry was pretty late for the move, which left me a very wide stop, but luckily It had enough momentum to get above $86. I had a target of $89 for a swing trade, but thought I would probably end up getting out today sometime.

I put boxes on the chart in white to show my stop strategy. At 1R profit, I moved the stop to breakeven. I never got a chance to move the stop to 1R, as it broke through my 1R to 2R box floor and closed below the 5-ema. That should have been my exit signal, but I wanted to hold on a bit longer hoping for a profit. Hope was justified since I was not hoping for a loss to turn around, but a profit to expand! I tried to only increase my stop to $85.70, but mistakenly put in a market order instead, filling me at $85.92. That mistake ended up getting me about 0.4R more on the trade, since the stop would have been hit later on. So hooray for a mistake in my favor! I seem to be taking a lot of trades that initially go my way lately, and I should be using tighter stops and larger position sizes because of it, as well as taking profits sooner. I need some scalping lessons from Richard! Also interesting is that the move powered up until it hit one of the S/R levels. S/R and Fibs are some of the only technicals that seem to consistently “work” in my experience.

Trade Summary:
AAPL Long 16 Shares
Entry: $85.45, Stop: $84.80, Target: $89.00
R: $10.40, Exit: $85.92
P/L: 0.72R, or $7.52

I also closed a swing trade in FuelCell Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCEL). I bought it Jan 29 as a swing version of a Muddy 10/60 with a very wide stop. Here’s the daily chart:

fcel-candle-three-months_1d-2007-02-07-131440.GIF

And an hourly intraday chart:

fcel-candle-all_60m-2007-02-07-131309.GIF

This FCEL trade was just a seat of the pants thing. I had no real plan, just another inter-day trade for something to do while waiting for my daytrades to recharge (dumb, I know). I raised my stop today as the daily chart looked tired, and it got hit.

The funny thing is, my P/L for this trade using ~ $73 was almost as big as my AAPL trade using ~$1360! Maybe with Zecco I should be swing trading 5 or so little stock positions at a time instead of a big lump daytrade every few days. This is the direction my thinking is taking me anyway. I know I’ve said much of this before, but repeating it to myself (and you) over and over might get it into my skull. :)

Trade Summary:
FCEL Long 11 Shares
Entry: $6.71, Stop: $5.83, Target: $9.90
R: $9.68, Exit: $7.20
P/L: 0.56R, or $5.39

All in all, I’ve taken 22 positions with Zecco, and I’m near net profitability, which is exciting for me! (I was a net loser with my old brokerage, for many reasons–commissions, inexperience, discipline, etc.) I’ve moved up from losing to breaking even, and with more work and luck I can move on to profitability! Here’s some stats from my spreadsheet–22 positions from Dec 17, 2006 to Today:

Net P&L: ($3.80)
Win Rate: 52.4% Loss Rate: 47.6%
Avg Win: 0.74 Avg Loss: (0.73)

Expectancy: 0.04 R
Profit Factor: 1.12

If I take out my first boneheaded trade, my P/L is actually $15.73. My biggest loser is -1.13 R, biggest winner 2.01 R, but remember that not all R’s are created equal. Back in the day, I had some 6 and 7 R losers, so that part of my trading has tightened up quite a bit. I’m now risking about 1% or less of my equity on each trade, and my losses about balance my wins. I need to further tighten up the losses and either increase my win rate or increase my average win to get to the next level.

I share all of this so that you will subscribe to my valuable investment services! ;) Really, I write P/L and share my stupid little details to show the path of the novice trader that I am following. This is my small payback for the many great teachers out there who have shared so much valuable knowledge and experience, and if I ever acquire any, I hope to pass that along as well.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
AAPL | |
FCEL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


Jan 3

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I wasn’t going to trade today, as I wanted to see how the session went the first day back. But this morning I read Trader Mike, and he said he was fading the gap in the Q’s again. Trader Mike’s read on the action got me looking at going short Apple Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) today. The daily chart shows AAPL bumping the 20-day EMA yesterday.

Here’s the tick chart of my trade (30 ticks per bar):

chart-of-aapl.gif

I saw the price action trending toward the low of the day, below the white “max volume” bar. I went short 15 shares at $85.60, with my stop above the high of the day at $86.60, which put my risk at exactly $15.00. This also was a case of margin buying power put to good use, as my $15 ‘R’ allowed a position size that was worth about 60% more than my equity. I watched carefully as the price waffled around my entry point, but the trade was proven correct and AAPL gave way.

I was going to swing trade this one, but I ratcheted my stop down an ‘R’ at a time to protect profits as shown on the chart (at +2R, I put a stop at +1R, and at +3R I put a +2R stop). I got the idea after reading comments from Richard a few weeks back. I ended up getting “stopped out” for 2R, or $30.00 exactly, account up 3.8%. Yay me!

I think I handled this trade pretty well: A- on entry, stop management and B on the exit, and that because I didn’t max out the profit. The bottom of the move would have gotten 3.5R. I later noticed that the low of the day was right at the resistance-turned-support at $81.90. In hindsight, that should have been my target rather than the round $80.00 I chose.

Any comments or critiques are requested, especially exit pointers!

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
AAPL | |

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com