Aug 22

Wow, I didn’t think I would ever make less than four trades a day again! But, it was a pretty sucky range-bound day again, and I didn’t find many exciting opportunities. Especially when it looked like we’d go for a gap fill in the nasdaq early on, but it turned out to be a fake-out, I knew today was going to be slow.

I’ve done a bit more thinking and experimenting with fibonacci lines, and I am still working out what I think ‘my’ methodology will be. Right now I’m leaning heavily on OONR7’s method as a starting point. I am really loving throwing fibs on PnF charts, which keeps them out of my way on the 3-minute charts I watch. For the videos I’m drawing them into the 3-minute charts so they’re visible.

Anyway, here’s the video for today:

One thing about that CHB trade today is that it was a pretty “V”-shaped reversal after the retracement, which I feel is generally less reliable. That’s another reason I decided to bail early. I think a more rounded turnaround is generally a better bet.

Watch this post's video on Youtube

May 23

It’s pretty incredible the trade-rate I’ve kept up in May. The trend has been to make 7 to 15 trades a month. This month, I’ve made 21 trades so far, with about a week left to go. I hope it’s not a fluke! I think jaiku and wallstreak help keep my mind from wandering. People keep asking me what I think of this stock or that stock, and before long I’m placing a trade on it. :-)

Trade 1, CHB

Anyway, I made another trade at the open, this time in Champion Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: CHB) for 1.93 R. The intraday chart is pretty meaningless, but I was playing a run up to the daily number from my 30-day High scan (I feel compelled to point out when I use the scan, now, since Prospectus asked me if I use it anymore).

Trade 2, HANS

The more interesting trade was the second one, on Hansen Natural Corp. (Nasdaq: HANS). As you can see from the daily chart, it’s consolidating a bit lately, but in a general uptrend:

hans daily

… So, I would normally want to go long. In fact, I told Prospectus as much. But, later, I started to change my mind. HANS started looking like a more reasonable short. Here’s the intraday PNF, marked up with what I focused on:

hans intraday PnF

… In my mind, it was starting to get volatile, with false breakouts both on the long and short side. It gave a sell signal on the first red line marked “pressure”, which I would never take, because (1) it’s against the trend, and (2) it would need to clear 41 before I would be comfortable. Then, on the second line marked pressure, it appeared to be pushing on 41. Interesting. I thought I could at least scalp a pop through 41.

Then, I pulled up a 5-minute chart, and saw this sort-of descending triangle. So, I decided to make a descending triangle play instead of a straight scalp. At my entry, the most recent high was 41.16ish, so that was my initial stop.

hans

The trade got scary initially, because a lot of volume stepped in to push my trade into the red. But, until the price makes a higher high, it’s still an intact downtrend. It made a lower high at 41.06ish and I lowered my stop once it backed away. Then, it finally fell through 41 again. At this point, a decision has to be made… get out now, or try to ride it out. I watched it trade for about 30 seconds. Sellers were reluctant to offer shares below 41.99, and the ask had a very annoying habit of hopping back up to 41.01. So, I decided to get out.

Sadly, the spread was so wide, and the ask was so thin, that the only way I was going to make a profit this close to my entry was to exit with a limit order. So, I reluctantly put in a limit order for 41.96. From the first partial fill to the completion of my order, it took a full 3 minutes for them to sell me enough shares to cover my short. Was that because there were other bids competing with me? Nope. I could see on TotalView that I was the only one sitting on the bid, and I had the best bid. The damn sellers were just not wanting to be the sucker that sold at the bottom. I can’t blame them… after all, I wanted out for the same reason! Anyway, when my order finally filled, a few minutes later it broke way down for what could have been a 50+ cent gain. Oh well, 4 cents doesn’t sound like much, but I assure you it was enough shares to be meaningful $.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
CHB | |
HANS | |
May 8

This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com


I posted my Stockfetcher code to a page under my Author Profile. I’ll keep my most recent version there, so anyone who cares can find it there.

Here’s the NR7’s for today, 5/8/2007:

HLIT, CHB, TRN, CF

I’ll be watching for the High / Low to be breached by the bid/ask spread plus two ticks, with a nearby support / resistance as the target.


This post was contributed by a guest author, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Richard or MovetheMarkets.com