Thursday treated me much better than Wednesday! And, it was a half day for me, at that!
I re-wrote the trend-following paintbars entirely this morning before the markets opened. I am much happier with this set. I know some of you are wanting to try these out, and I am still hoping to put together something for release this weekend.
[edit: did I really say: "it would have rose quite a bit"? geez.... when I'm trying to talk quickly, it doesn't always work very well!]
Here are my reviews of trades I made way back on March 29th 2006. Compared to the set from the 28th, it seems like I really improved, overnight (but it’s actually just an indication of how inconsistent I was).
This one is easily the worst of the batch. Here’s the chart with my original 2006 comments on it:
I think it’s hilarious that I said my exit looks ridiculous. I think my entry point looks pretty darn ridiculous. Well, I’ll at least give myself points for observing the natural round-number resistance at 28. But, look at the whitespace between the stock and the fast ema at the open. That sucker was pretty likely to keep running up. It seems like I was selectively oblivious to the price’s relation to its 8EMA, because the next two trades are based on this relationship.
I think I said it all back in 2006: “I have no idea … how much the stock will move, or in what direction.” Hmmm… then I wish my 2006 self would have gone on to remind me why I took the trade in the first place. Stupid trade.
I like this trade. There’ve been a couple others like it in this review series already. In fact, I don’t know why I’m not taking trades like this today. They make sense. As you’ll see, though, I seriously jumped the gun on my execution. Here’s the chart with my 2006 comments:
There was ample room for this stock to fall down and consolidate, which is good. 75 cents between my entry, and the 8EMA at the time of entry.
I guess I’ll give myself points for trying at a round number, and maybe in a sub-15 minute chart I’d see that it hesitated prior to my short. But, 30 minutes later than my actual trade would have been a much better entry. A weak 15-minute candle that didn’t make a higher high…
As with all these early trades, I don’t mention where my stop was, but I bet it was either $0.50 or $1.00. I was trading in the Millenium Traders chatroom back then, and they always used $1.00 stops, so I did that sometimes. I would have used $0.50 because that’s about a 1% stop loss in terms of the stock price.
So, good idea, good candidate, very bad execution.
This is the same theme as the ENER trade, only it’s the move after the retrace to the fast EMA. I like this play.
Once again, though, I completely jumped the gun on my entry. It would appear that I entered simply because the price touched the 8EMA. That’s silly. The following candle showed weakness and would have made a better place to enter.
This last trade was definitely influenced by my time in the Millennium Traders chat room. We constantly bought dips in uptrending stocks. If you follow what I write here at the site, and elsewhere, you know I still like this idea… I just don’t know how to safely execute it. Trading breakouts is much more clear-cut.
I give myself credit for keeping the round number 32 in mind, and recognizing a double top as my cue to exit.
I said in my 2006 comments that the 1:00 pullback would have been a good entry. If I had taken that entry today, I’d have been stopped out at 1:30. I clearly used wider stops back then.
[Edit: 5/30/2007: I've re-reviewed these trades here, now that I have another year of experience to bring to the table.]
My best day so far, though it’s hard to take too much credit because the markets were really moving today! In fact, I should be hard on myself for not taking more money out of it. I will be analyzing all my trades and scans this weekend to improve.
Here are the charts with commentary at the top. The second trade I got antsy and took a 1 cent loss rather than hold on for the profits that followed. It was my first and only losing trade this week, so far.
I’m so pleased that my first few days have been in line with my price targets. Who knows what it would have done to me, psychologically, to lose a lot of money my first week without a day job!