• Mathematics, Trading

    Posted on January 28th, 2010

    Written by Richard

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    RWT-008: Forever is a Long Time

    RWT-008: Forever is a Long Time

    I’ve posted RWT-008, which goes over some basic game theory as it applies to a common trading decision: taking profits vs. letting the trade ride. In a canned example, I show how you can mathematically decide which option is best, and also give a way to model the imperfection of the common trader when [...]

  • Trading

    Posted on January 28th, 2007

    Written by Richard

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    How To Be Consistently Profitable in the Markets

    If you are trading with a goal of maximizing your long term profits, you should be concerned with maximizing your expectancy. But, if you are like me, and you want to keep your electricity on via trading stocks, expectancy isn’t the right measurement to use. In this article, I’ll explain how to gauge [...]

  • Trading

    Posted on August 4th, 2006

    Written by Richard

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    What Risk:Reward Ratio is Right for You?

    Ever wonder why a 1:3 Risk:Reward ratio is so prevalent as a rule of thumb? Ever since I’ve been reading about trading, I’ve heard people say that they ideally look for at least a 1:3 ratio, even if they’ll settle for 1:2. In this article, I’ll talk about how you can derive this [...]

  • Trading

    Posted on June 21st, 2006

    Written by Richard

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    Expectancy and the lottery

    I was listening to this excellent audio presentation that ugly posted about, and it got me thinking yet again about expectancy. The audio was about how people have trouble with probability. One example characterizes lotteries as a stupidity tax, because the odds of winning are so remote. But, what is the expectancy [...]

  • Trading

    Posted on May 20th, 2006

    Written by Richard

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    We are all at risk!

    We are all, theoretically, at risk of total financial ruin. Imagine you find a system with a 99.9% success rate, an average per-trade gain of 50% equity, and an average loss of only 0.01% of equity. You would use it, right? So would I! After all, the expectancy would be: [...]

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