Nov 25

I personally love to daytrade the e-minis, and we show off e-mini daytrading in the eotpro.com live room every day. That’s why I have been trying to focus on stocks here at the blog lately: to make sure people understand that our indicators work great on them, too!

As most of you know, I try not to cherry-pick anything. Not the stock (when a reader doesn’t request anything, I simply pick the top-discussed stock on stocktwits). Not the timeframe (I use a volume chart chosen mechanically based on the 30-day average volume). Not the time of day (I show the whole day). Not the indicators (I use the same ones every time, with the same settings). Not the entries (they are chosen mechanically by an entry indicator). And every stock I’ve featured so far has looked decent.

Damn, I’m awesome!

Anyway… the top stocktwits stock today was Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG). We have a short entry and a long entry. You’d probably scratch the short unless you were itching to take profits. But the long was very-well timed! Check it out:

Note that if you were bullish on the open, you could have traded the second bar… the only reason the mechanical entry indicator passed on it was because the end-of-trend indicator was up. That will happen most times when there is a decent-sized gap.

Check out past posts tagged simple-stock-system to see other stocks I’ve featured. It just goes to show that with the right tools, daytrading doesn’t have to be all that complicated….

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GOOG | |
Nov 18

In the comments, Todd requested that I feature Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (Nasdaq: ENER). So, here we go….

Two trades, for two wins. The move at the open was rejected due to volume pressure to the upside… looks like there was some buying pressure on the way down, either bottom pickers or short covering. The second move down was much cleaner from a volume perspective, and was picked off nicely. The long trade took its time, but did drift up without retracing much.

I’d say this was quite a nice performance from the simple stock system. I mean, it’s mechanical entries, after all, and it’s done quite well. I don’t cherry-pick the stock (Todd chose it), or the time frame (it’s chosen based on the 30-day avg volume), or the time of day (I always show the whole day), or the indicator settings (they are always the same). Just a couple of my eotpro indicators and a little common sense go a long way…

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
ENER | |
Nov 17

Cool… I didn’t realize so many ETFs had moved from AMEX to NYSE. Anyway…. reader Todd requested QLD in the comments. Honestly, I prefer stocks to ETFs because the volume flow is less confusing to track, but here we go:

The simple stock system selects 6 entries, of which 4 were clear winners. The first and fourth trades didn’t just run the other way… but the pullbacks were severe enough that you might have wanted to take a small loss. In any case, the winners here should definitely edge out the losers for any daytrading style I can imagine. So, not as strong a showing here as the Goldman Sachs example I just posted, but pretty good nonetheless.

I have yet to see the simple stock system have a bad day on any stock I’ve thrown it at. If you are curious, look over the posts tagged simple-stock-system, and see for yourself!

Nov 17

Today’s top-discussed stock on stocktwits was Goldman Sachs Corp. (NYSE: GS), so I pulled up my simple stock system on the chart. You can see from the dots in the first subgraph that there were four trades selected mechanically. All four were winners, with maybe the third one so scary that you’d want to bail break-even. Not bad, at all!

I added arrows on top of price action where the dots fired, so you can see how it lines up easier. Sweet!

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GS | |
Nov 14

As usual, I went with whatever the top stock on stocktwits happened to be. Today, it was UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Proshares (NYSE: FXP). I’d rather have real companies rather than all these ETFs, but whatever… you deal with what you’re given.

I mark four trades on this chart, and my mechanical entry finder found three. The last one wasn’t mechanically identified because the first green bar still had negative volume pressure (on the histogram in the subgraph). But, two bars later, the volume pressure was building to the upside, and price hadn’t moved anywhere. So, I marked it. If that’s too much discretion for you, then feel free to disregard that trade.

Anyway, here’s the chart:

So, trade 1 had its volume pressure go into the red shortly after entry. It did hover near the entry price for a few bars after, allowing you to essentially scratch the trade. You wouldn’t quite break even, but you wouldn’t lose much. Trade two would either be a win or a loss depending on your money management. If you used the plot cycles to manage risk, then it would be a big win, and there would be no trade 3 for you. If you used the top of the bar, or the moving average for your stop, then you took a small loss. Then, trades 3 and 4 were nicely profitable.

Look back across the simple-stock-system posts, and you’ll see that every darn one of them looks pretty good. They aren’t all perfect, but none of them look horrible. That’s saying a lot, since it is such a simple system. If you are curious about the rules and setup, etc, just look at one of the recent past posts… I repeat them every so often.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
FXP | |
Nov 13

Today the top stock on StockTwits was Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG). The simple system produced 2 trades, both long. The first would be a small loss, and the second ran like crazy. I don’t have time at the moment to go over all the rules, but basically I am showing how just a couple eotpro indicators can be used to daytrade stocks rather profitably. I don’t cherrypick the stock (I use what you suggest, or what I see on stocktwits), or the entries (they are mechanical), or the time of day (I show the whole day).

There’s about 15 minutes left in the markets, but I’m going ahead and taking the snapshot because I’ll be very busy post-market tonight. Enjoy!

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GOOG | |
Nov 10

As usual, I looked up the top stock on stocktwits. I can’t say I was surprised that General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) showed up as most-discussed. As often happens, GM was doing a lot more volume than its average, so I got more volume bars than I would generally want. Still, the demonstration system I use handled it quite well!

Here are the screen shots, with the whole day’s signals. I should note that these are 100% mechanical signals… I drew the arrows in to show you how it lined up to the indicator’s dots.

You might wonder why there wasn’t a short trade on the first red candle after the open. The answer is that End-of-Trend (the thick blue line indicator at the bottom of the chart) was all the way up. The mechanical system plays it safe and disallows trades when end-of-trend is up. You could choose to take the trade anyway, at your discretion. Right at the open, I’d say that’s not a bad bet to make.

Other than the first and last of the long trades (which many people would skip anyway since we were under Alla’s Average), I didn’t see any losses. A couple close-calls, maybe. But, overall, I think the simple stock system did a great job on GM.

And think! I didn’t cherry pick the stock, the time-frame, or the signals, and I showed you the whole day. And, I invite you to ask for your favorite stocks to be featured, and I’ll get to them one at a time.

If you need a refresher about what “rules” I use, here you go:

  • Volume chart chosen based on 30-day average volume (I generally use the overview settings from this reference post on these stock charts).
  • New push on the everypush paintbar (first red or green bar)
  • Volume pressure on b/a-histogram is up for long, down for short.
  • End of Trend is below 90
  • Closes above the fast MA for long, and below for short. Candle body must not be touching the MA… candle wick can be touching the MA… that’s still ok.

(and if you haven’t been following my futures trading, this is essentially the same method I use on futures lately, with some alterations)

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GM | |
Nov 7

Reader John gave me a tough one today to feature: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS). The action was pretty sideways/countertrend all day, except for the morning drop down. The mechanical entries I’ve been using to show off the system performed pretty well. I’ll talk about two ways I’d trade differently below. First the chart:

So, you can see that it grabbed the big drop at the open, then took two more shots short, both of which would result in small losses. Ok, good enough.

But, as a human, I would trade this chart differently on two counts:

  1. I would never take the second short trade. Why? It’s at the bottom of that huge push down. No retrace. Far from Alla’s average. If I see too many more examples like that coming through, I’ll have to add a rule to the simple stock system to avoid those.
  2. I’d take the long trade that forms around 10:15. The reason the mechanical system didn’t grab it is because the first green candle hadn’t cleared the fast MA. But, I show people in the eotpro live room often that I’ll get in on the second or third candle if volume pressure is steadily rising. The mechanical system refuses to evaluate a trade after the first candle. I want it to be super simple. I’d also look hard at the long setup just before 13:45, but I”d probably pass because the big upper wick on the second candle would turn me off.

So, the mechanical demonstration made money, and I would have personally made more money. Hard to complain about that! :-)

We had a great time in the live room today, showing off what everypush can do. Guests we had were leaving us happy and profitable. I think at least one of them is likely to sign up and join our group. Always great news!

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GS | |
Nov 6

As usual when there are no suggestions from readers, I picked the top stock mentioned today on stocktwits. Today, it was Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS). As most of you know, I calibrate the volume bars to the 30-day average volume. Since volume on LVS was so much higher than average today, we ended up with a lot of candles. I worried that the resulting signals would be too whippy, but it actually turned out ok.

(In real life I’d notice the extreme volume early in the day via tools such as trade-ideas and I’d adjust the volume bar settings. But, sadly, I know if I post an adjusted chart then the cynics will crawl out of the woodwork and claim that I’m being dishonest and manipulating the outcome. Such is life.)

Anyway, here are the charts… I added arrows to the chart to help you see where things line up with price action, but all of the entries were picked mechanically, as seen by the indicator on the first subgraph.

I think it looks pretty good! Yeah, not every trade here wins, especially in the morning, but it certainly looks like a profitable day to me!

I’d like to remind people that I’m not trying to come up with the best system ever, here… We could get complicated and say things like: trade 1/2 size when we’re on the wrong side of Alla’s Average, for example. But optimization is not the point. I laugh when I see unprofitable traders optimizing their systems. Get profitable, then get really profitable. I want people to see that you actually don’t have to work too hard to make a profitable system out of good indicators . Obviously I suggest you check out the ones I release through eotpro.

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
LVS | |
Nov 3

Today, I picked General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM), since it was the top stock mentioned on stocktwits.

I’ve marked the three entries (1 long followed by 2 shorts). All easy winners, which is nice. People are really liking their first taste of the everypush indicator/paintbar now that I’ve released it. This is just one more reason why that is. It’s available for Tradestation, Multicharts, and Ninjatrader from eotpro if you are interested.

The little dot indicator in the middle panel marks entries, but has stricter volume pressure requirements than I tend to use on stocks. That’s why it only marks the third trade entry. Maybe I’ll make a stock-trades version of the entry indicator soon. I’m too lazy to draw the arrows by hand… :-)

Anyway, the demonstration method used here for stocks is:

  • Volume chart chosen based on 30-day average volume (I generally use the overview settings from this reference post on these stock charts).
  • New push on the everypush paintbar (first red or green bar)
  • Volume pressure on b/a-histogram is up for long, down for short. Not positive whether I care if it’s rising or falling yet…
  • Closes above the fast MA for long, and below for short. Candle body must not be touching the MA… candle wick can be touching the MA… that’s still ok.
Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
GM | |
Oct 28

Blog reader Jeff can’t get enough of Ultrashort Financials Proshares (AMEX: SKF), so I’ve picked it again at his request. Lower-than-average volume gave us fewer bars than I’d like, and our rule about not getting in while the cycle-EMA touches the candle body kept us out of the initial run up. Oh well…. But, the simple system did take two stabs short in the afternoon, for two wins. Not bad!

The ability to adjust the chart levels, or make judgment calls about getting in on the second bar of a run, would have helped us grab more of the profit today, but I don’t want to do anything too complicated in the simple demonstration posts. It’s consistently profitable, which is more than I can say for most traders. Most people don’t understand that you need to get profitable first, and then try to fine tune stuff. Be smarter than most people, and you’ll be fine!

Oct 27

There were no stock suggestions today, so I went with UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (AMEX: SMN) because it was the most-discussed stock on stocktwits.

As with all recent stock posts, the demonstration method used here is:

  • Volume chart chosen based on 30-day average volume (I generally use the overview settings from this reference post on these stock charts).
  • New push on the everypush paintbar (first red or green bar)
  • Volume pressure on b/a-histogram is up for long, down for short. Not positive whether I care if it’s rising or falling yet…
  • Closes above the cycleMA for long, and below for short. Candle body must not be touching the cycleMA… candle wick can be touching the MA… that’s still ok.

I’m still solidifying how I want to do money management on these… but right now I put the stop below the entry candle, and then switch to trailing the stop below each candle as soon as doing so would lock in profit. Obviously you want to hold off on moving the stop if the price closes on the low of a candle, or you are just stepping in front of a bus. So there’s some subtlety there, which I’ll try to codify for you as much as I can as time goes on. Opposite for short trades.

Anyway, with that stop strategy only the first trade (marked 1) would be a loss. The other 6 trades all made money. Trades 2 and 3 would meld together (because you’d still be in trade 2 when trade 3 came around, and make a small amount of money. 4 and 5 make money. 6 is a really close call, but ends up making money just before trade 7 fires. And, obviously, trade 7 is a huge gain compared to all the other trades.

Seriously, people, you can’t tell me it’s ambiguous, now… you don’t even have to understand what a pullback is, anymore. Our eotpro stuff is really, really good.

Oct 23

Blog reader Jeff requested SKF today. So, here it is:

I’m calling this one five trades for four wins and one loss. If you use the previous plot cycle for stops, you’d have no losses, actually… but I’m generally thinking of a tighter money management scheme than that.

As always, I show the whole day, and I show every qualifying signal. No funnybusiness. Is this the best system there is? Heck no. But, it just takes a couple of my eotpro indicators and uses them together to trade in a way that’s consistently profitable.

The methodology I’m currently using to select the entries is unchanged from the past few days. I thought I might have to add some additional filters to the system to keep out bad edge cases, but so far the simple approach has worked just fine. Anyway, here it is, and it is 100% completely unambiguous so far.

  • Volume chart chosen based on 30-day average volume.
  • New push on the everypush paintbar (first red or green bar)
  • Volume pressure on b/a-histogram is up for long, down for short. Not positive whether I care if it’s rising or falling yet…
  • Closes above the cycleMA for long, and below for short. Candle body must not be touching the cycleMA… candle wick can be touching the MA… that’s still ok.
Oct 21

You all should feel free to suggest stocks.. I know I still owe Quentin a volume-splitter screenshot, but I’ve just been too busy to get it on my screens in the morning and leave it to collect the data. Anyway, I picked Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL) today because it was the top stock mentioned today on stocktwits.

Same critera as the last few days for picking entries. You can see we ride the move down, then hop on again in the afternoon a bit late to get much more. But, at least it tried to hop on again…

Not bad!

Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
AAPL | |
Oct 20

Here’s the last two days of the Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) using the current version of the simple stock system demonstration setup. I just want to highlight how well a couple of my eotpro indicators can do on intraday stocks.

Why the last two days? Well, I accidentally annotated Friday, before realizing that I needed to refresh the data. Oops! :-) Anyway, it’s nice to see that I’m not cherrypicking the days, either… so I just showed both. It did well, as usual!

You can see that the two days were very different. Today was a relatively flat, low volume market day, and that’s definitely reflected in today’s MOS chart. The simple demonstration system basically urges you to buy all day as it drifts up. It’s a nice call! Note that a human probably would know to get in on the obvious long in the morning, but this system does not allow me to put an arrow on the second green bar. So be it! Recall, the current rules for entry are:

  • Volume chart chosen based on 30-day average volume.
  • New push on the everypush paintbar (first red or green bar)
  • Volume pressure on b/a-histogram is up for long, down for short. Not positive whether I care if it’s rising or falling yet…
  • Closes above the cycleMA for long, and below for short. Candle body must not be touching the cycleMA… candle wick can be touching the MA… that’s still ok.
Stocks Mentioned In This Article
StockLinks
MOS | |

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